Aston Villa vs Liverpool

[Rory Fitzgerald]

 

One of my favourite goals from last season:

 

GIF of goal courtesy of @FeintZebra: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8532/8606429202_9965d956f6_o.gif

 

General Form

 

Aston Villa picked up 20pts last season from 19 home games with a record of W5 D5 L9 which was 4th worst home record in the league and the same number of points that a poor Reading side managed to pick up at home. In fact, they picked up 1pt more away from home last season (21pts) which could be reflective of their preferred style of play i.e. counter-attacking. However, since January/February, Villa's fortunes changed and they were a top 8 side on form in the last few months of the season.

 

Possession

 

At home, Villa's average possession was 47.3% which ranked 13th against other teams in the league at home. Their ball retention is also below average at 78% when playing at home (though they are an average / below average team). Part of the reason for that was that they were not shy about hitting their attackers early and looking to play off Benteke with Agbonlahor and Wiemann giving good support. Villa took the lead at home against Liverpool last season with this tactic. Agbonlahor ended up winning the ball from Westwood's 50 yard long 'pass/ball' which Benteke smashed in from the edge of the area. In this instance there was a sizeable gap between their midfield & attack. There was no interest in Agbonlahor or Wiemann dropping off to receive the ball rather they were happy for midfield to hit Benteke and try to take advantage of a 3 on 4 situation.

 

Only 5 images allowed on board - link to image

 

http://files.roryfitz9.webnode.com/200000081-3cfbd3fe9e/Game2.Benteke%20goal.png

 

Also, against Arsenal when Koscielny picked up his 2nd yellow card, Villa won the ball back on the edge of their area and El Ahmadi, almost without looking, hit a high long ball to Benteke who pulled to Villa's right. Benteke won the ball and immediately had support from Wiemann who collected his the knock down. Wiemann was then fouled by Koscielny as he tried to cut inside.

 

Below is a graphic of Villa's long balls against Liverpool at Villa Park . Not all were pure direct balls as seen by Stoke last season (not so much last week though) but of those direct balls from deep defence, they were aimed to their left . This is generally because Benteke operated from this side in last season's game. Lucas tried to negate this tactic by standing on Benteke's toes to try stop him pulling it down on his chest or make the flick on more difficult. Hopefully the same tactic is employed again by Liverpool. In that game, Lucas competed for 6 headers whereas Carragher and Johnson (who were on the right of defence competed for 4 between them, Agger actually competed for 11 !!). With Toure a willing competitor in the air and operating on the right, Benteke should not have it all his own way in the air if he is largely going to operate by drifting left of center.

 

 

Despite the ability of Benteke in the air, Villa only scored 7 headed goals with the average across the league being 10 headed goals per team (Liverpool were bang on the average with 10). In terms of their potentcy from set pieces, again Villa were average and Liverpool scored the same number of goals (8) from crossed free kicks & corners.

 

Attack

 

Benteke was a massive influence on Villa's season last year. He accounted for 40% of their goals overall (19 of the 47) and at home, that stat increased even more (to 48%) as he scored 11 goals of the 23 Aston Villa scored at home last season. Only Van Persie scored more home goals last season (12) than Benteke. Their regular front trio of Agbonlahor (9), Benteke (19) and Wiemann (7) scored 35 goals between them which is a significant amount given that the team as a whole scored 47 goals last season.

 

Intercept & Counter

 

One aspect of Villa's play from last season was their desire to counter attack swiftly when they won the ball back or intercepted a pass. When a team has a midfield with the likes of Delph, Westwood, Sylla & Bannon and an attack with Benteke, Agbonlahor & Wiemann, its not surprising that they try get the ball to their attackers quickly rather than try recycle possession with average midfielders (as outlined already with the below average possession stats). However, they are also willing to push Lowton forward and Luna was not shy about attacking on his debut at Arsenal.

 

Villa had the 2nd highest amount of interceptions with players like Lowton, Delph and Westwood ranking high in the interception stats. They averaged 20.2 interceptions per game last season but given Liverpool's short passing game, the opportunity for interceptions rose and they cut out 39 balls in the game last season. They don't stand off in midfield and work hard to win the ball back. Their possession stats are just below average because they focus on pace and quick passes when they can rather than recycle possession.

 

They were also one of the biggest offenders when it came being caught offside with Benteke being the player caught offside most often last season (50 times). This could be further evidence of Villa looking to spring a defence early once they regain possession.

 

Defence

 

Villa had the 3rd worst defensive record last season conceding 69 goals, just 4 better Reading & Wigan with 15 of those goals being conceded in the 3 games after beating Liverpool at Anfield (Chelsea 8-0, Spurs 4-0, Wigan 3-0). There was also a 5-0 defeat to Man City as well. Even still, if those 20 goals were removed from the record, Villa's defence still had problems as they kept the fewest clean sheets in the league last season along with Reading and Wigan (just 5 from 38 games). The average no. of clean sheets in the league last season was 10 so Villa were well below this average. Below is an example of how Villa were punished when Lowton was caught very high up the pitch. Villa lost the ball yet Lowton still pursued Wilshire into the corner thus leaving himself too much to do when Arsenal worked the ball out of defence. It meant a center half had to move over to try cover Oxlade Chamberlain but got done for pace leaving Giroud with plenty of space in the box against 1 defender for him to get on the end of the cross.

 

Only 5 images allowed on board - link to image

 

http://files.roryfitz9.webnode.com/200000141-6ac686bc1c/LowtonSmaller.png

 

Look at Hendersons goal last year (gif link above). Lowton was caught high up the pitch and Gerrard put the ball into space in the right back area for Coutinho to chase. Whilst Lowton gave good chase to Coutinho, Ron Vlaar left his spot at center back to cover the space and Suarez movement to that side dragged the other center half over. It gave an opportunity for the brilliance of Coutinho to exploit when he checked back - there was now a massive hole in Villa's defence and it stemmed from 2 great players (Gerrard hitting Coutinho) moving the ball quickly to exploit the full back's positioning.

 

 

Line-Ups

 

Here is how the teams lined up last April at Villa Park. Villa in blue, Liverpool in orange.

 

Only 5 images allowed on board - link to image

 

http://files.roryfitz9.webnode.com/200000134-8dc538ee63/LineUps.png

 

Liverpool were 1-0 down going in at half time and stepped up the performance in the 2nd half. The full backs featured heavily that day . What I liked about that performance in the 2nd half was how well the left side worked. Henderson did alot of work to allow Enrique & Coutinho (before he was subbed) to attack and also made the run for equaliser. The graphic below highlights just how prevalent the full backs were in the game with plenty of touches and passes in the oppositions half.

 

 

Below is a graphic from Villa's opening day game away at Arsenal. Given that Villa got their act together at the end of last season with this set up, it is of little surprise that Lambert set up with same system for the new season. Westwood sits in the center of midfield and the other 2 players take it in turns to press the opposition (it was Delph and El Ahmadi against Arsenal).

 

 

Conclusion

 

Whilst Villa like to counter attack, they are not a team that sits off and tries to soak pressure and then hit. They are likely to work hard in midfield and press near the half way line to try force errors. When in possession, if the quick counter attack is not on, they generally allow one or both full backs to join the attack which enables Agbonlahor and Wiemann to get closer to Benteke. With this in mind, Lucas could be a key player in providing support to the back line when (a) Johnson & Enrique go forward, (b) standing in front of Benteke at goal kicks, but also when © Villa's full backs move forward and Agbonlahor and Wiemann come inside thus giving Toure & Agger a headache with Benteke also to look after.

 

Liverpool are likely to dominate possession and given the amount of chances that the team has created in games since the arrival of Coutinho & Sturridge combined with Villa failing to keep a clean sheet since last December (worst in the league), then Liverpool are likely to get enough chances to win the game. However, Villa have been consistent scorers of late as well and created some good chances against Liverpool at Villa Park last season. If the game is tight going into the last 10mins, Villa conceded the most goals in this period last season (14 goals) and with Liverpool having attacking options on the bench (Borini, Sterling, Ibe), a late winner cannot be ruled out.

 

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

 

Prediction: Head says 1-1, heart says 2-1 Liverpool.

 

http://roryfitz9.webnode.com/news/aston-villa/

[Sion]

They have a strong front 3, but the rest of their team is abysmal.

Should be taking these to the cleaners

 

1-4

[Ethan]

Stop Benteke

Edited August 21, 2013 by Ethan

[sean]

They have a strong front 3, but the rest of their team is abysmal.

Should be taking these to the cleaners

 

1-4

 

 

Doomed

[goodrobotusses]

Pro: Villa should be tired after playing away to Chelsea tonight.

Con: Villa go LONG to Benteke, and we've struggled against big lugs and runners from midfield.

 

Come on Kolo!

[Clay Davis]

If we're wise to the counter attack and can pass our way out of them pressing up the field, we'll walk it.

 

They really squeezed it high against Arsenal. Will be a test for Mignolet as I fear our pass it round the back routine will come under some pressure in this one.

 

No giving it away cheaply in midfield.

 

Agger vs. Benteke will be a big one too, as he'll target him, the midfield has to be hovering round their duels for the second balls.

 

Otherwise - get the ball to Coutinho and everyone f***ing run.

[The_Adder]

Get Toure's big ass on Benteke's big head and get Sturridge to score a few.

[Bailo]

I'm going to this. With Bigal.

 

I'm so excited.

[cocknose]

We need Chelsea to wallop these and take the wind out of their sails.

[Ethan]

I hope they beat Chelsea 1 - 0 in the 90th minute and welcome us all over confident

Edited August 21, 2013 by Ethan

[Gunga Din]

theyve a lot of pace in the side and very quick on the break. We need to have a good solid midfield, stop the supply to Benteke and we should be ok. But its will be a tough game this. they play tonight and atthis stage of the season i think thats a help rather than a hindrance, as it gets them fitter. If they get a result at Chelsea tonight their confidence will be very high come saturday. An Ideal result tonight would be Chelsea give them a hiding, and Villa to get a few injuries or someone sent off

Edited August 21, 2013 by Gunga Din

[Swipe]

Think this could be a tricky game.

[The_Adder]

theyve a lot of pace in the side and very quick on the break. We need to have a good solid midfield, stop the supply to Benteke and we should be ok. But its will be a tough game this. they play tonight and atthis stage of the season i think thats a help rather than a hindrance, as it gets them fitter. If they get a result at Chelsea tonight their confidence will be very high come saturday. An Ideal result tonight would be Chelsea give them a hiding, and Villa to get a few injuries or someone sent off

 

Chelsea 0 Villa 8

 

Benteke, Weimann and Agbon all sent off in the 90th minute

[Farmer's Tan]

it will be a very tough game, i'd be pleasantly surprised if we won it. The midfield needs tightening and getting Toure on Benteke all game as he will slaughter Agger if he gets near him.

[richwilks]

We should put a bid in for Benteke Friday night to f*** with his head.

[mrjunk]

YES, new tactic, unsettle opposition player day before game.

[JonShar]

Rory, thanks for all this info, it's ace work mate.

[Dan]

We'll batter these s*** b******s.

[Rory Fitzgerald]

Rory, thanks for all this info, it's ace work mate. :thumbs:/>

 

No problem, I liked playing with crayons as a kid so the colours appeal to me

[Crazy Horse]

I see this one as a big test. Our project seems basically the same as Villa's, albeit with a bit more money spent on the team. I fancy Villa to make the top 10 this season, good young players and a good young manager. If we win this I'll be feeling good about our prospects, lose it and I'll confidently expect another mediocre season.

[Dan]

I see this one as a big test. Our project seems basically the same as Villa's, albeit with a bit more money spent on the team. I fancy Villa to make the top 10 this season, good young players and a good young manager. If we win this I'll be feeling good about our prospects, lose it and I'll confidently expect another mediocre season.

 

So the season hinges on this one game for you? Interesting.

[Conrad]

So the season hinges on this one game for you? Interesting.

 

you know what he means though. imagine winning and going into the man utd game with 6 points from 6.

[Red Yoda]

1 - 3

 

Sturridge 2 , Henderson 1

[muleskinner]

you know what he means though. imagine winning and going into the man utd game with 6 points from 6.

 

took about 7 games to get 6 points last year

[Crazy Horse]

Didn't realise AV were starting off with games against Arsenal, Chelsea and us. That's brutal. Moyes would have been so angry with that he might even has got a disrepute charge.