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Fourth, is it on?


fellafeen

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Our league form needs to take a serious spike over the next 5 weeks for us to be in with a chance. We have played 7 home and 5 away and have to jump 9 places, statistically there are only 2 or 3 teams every season who make a considerable jump but I believe there is every reason to suggest that we are in with a shout. Looking at how many points we are off 4th now does not offer hope as statistically it is more likely for that gap to widen than narrow. The one game at a time mantra gets spouted by managers but improving the points tally over a period is what is crucial or producing spurts/periods where the points return is abnormal within the season as a whole.

 

I don't know if it is on, we are all blinded by loyalty but I think we have more than a decent chance.

 

Swansea V Liverpool Sun 25 Nov 13:30

Tottenham V Liverpool Wed 28 Nov 19:45

Liverpool V Southampton Sat 1 Dec 15:00

West Ham V Liverpool Sun 9 Dec 16:00

Liverpool V Aston Villa Sat 15 Dec 15:00

Liverpool V Fulham Sat 22 Dec 17:30

Stoke V Liverpool Wed 26 Dec 19:45

QPR V Liverpool Sun 30 Dec 16:00

Liverpool V Sunderland Wed 2 Jan 19:45

Man Utd V Liverpool Sun 13 Jan 13:30

Liverpool V Norwich Sat 19 Jan 15:00

Arsenal V Liverpool Wed 30 Jan 19:45

Man City V Liverpool Sat 2 Feb 15:00

Liverpool V West Brom Sat 9 Feb 15:00

Liverpool V Swansea Sat 23 Feb 15:00

Wigan V Liverpool Sat 2 Mar 15:00

Liverpool V Tottenham Sat 9 Mar 15:00

Southampton V Liverpool Sat 16 Mar 15:00

Aston Villa V Liverpool Sat 30 Mar 15:00

Liverpool V West Ham Sat 6 Apr 15:00

Reading V Liverpool Sat 13 Apr 15:00

Liverpool V Chelsea Sat 20 Apr 15:00

Newcastle V Liverpool Sat 27 Apr 15:00

Liverpool V Everton Sat 4 May 15:00

Fulham V Liverpool Sun 12 May 15:00

Liverpool V QPR Sun 19 May 15:00 c

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Swansea V Liverpool Sun 25 Nov 13:30

Tottenham V Liverpool Wed 28 Nov 19:45

Liverpool V Southampton Sat 1 Dec 15:00

West Ham V Liverpool Sun 9 Dec 16:00

Liverpool V Aston Villa Sat 15 Dec 15:00

Liverpool V Fulham Sat 22 Dec 17:30

Stoke V Liverpool Wed 26 Dec 19:45

QPR V Liverpool Sun 30 Dec 16:00

Liverpool V Sunderland Wed 2 Jan 19:45

 

That bulk of games will be the critical point of the season. Most are very winnable, if we do what we should do, we're right in the mix for top four. Problem being though, that the 'easy' games are the ones we're insanely brilliant at f*cking up.

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I think the period between now and Jan is key, more than 5 points off 4th and we are goners I think regardless of what happens in Jan, new signings could end up having a negative effect on short term results. Suarez staying fit/available is the deciding factor really although getting Lucas back and in form will have a massive impact too imho.

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I reckon it's wide open. Not looking at west brom but rather arsenal. They are within touchin distance.

 

If we going for the title I would agree we need to be within 5 points of leaders. 4th however sees a greater variance so not so disturbed. If we are still there by feb 3, we should do it. By then we'd have completed our January business and have played mancs, city and arsenal away.

 

The oppositions are poor though so no reason why we aren't as likely as the other contenders.

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I reckon it's wide open. Not looking at west brom but rather arsenal. They are within touchin distance.

 

If we going for the title I would agree we need to be within 5 points of leaders. 4th however sees a greater variance so not so disturbed. If we are still there by feb 3, we should do it. By then we'd have completed our January business and have played mancs, city and arsenal away.

 

The oppositions are poor though so no reason why we aren't as likely as the other contenders.

 

This is spot on.

 

The reason that the teams chasing 4th are chasing 4th and not the title, is because they're inconsistent. So for that reason, i dont go along with this 'we need to be within 5 points of 4th...' stuff. With the inconsistency of the contenders for 4th, 5 points is nothing at the halfway point.

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It's a weak league with only 2 consistent teams so you never know but the last time we won back to back league games was last December and we're going back to the 2010/11 season when we last won more than 3 league games in a row so until we put together a run of 5/6 straight wins it's pointless to even discuss the Champs League.

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It's a weak league with only 2 consistent teams so you never know but the last time we won back to back league games was last December and we're going back to the 2010/11 season when we last won more than 3 league games in a row so until we put together a run of 5/6 straight wins it's pointless to even discuss the Champs League.

 

Such is the inconsistency of this league, we wouldnt need to win 5 or 6 consecutive games to be in amongst it.

 

If we win our next two (realistic or not), we'll be right in amongst them.

 

If we actually won 5 or 6 on the bounce, then i imagine we'd actually find ourselves in fourth place.

Edited by DJS
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It's why I try and not look too far ahead - does my nut in otherwise

 

Aye. Get a few wins, do some good business in January and see what happens. Too many ifs within that to think about it right now though.

Edited by Swipe
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Swansea V Liverpool Sun 25 Nov 13:30

Tottenham V Liverpool Wed 28 Nov 19:45

Liverpool V Southampton Sat 1 Dec 15:00

West Ham V Liverpool Sun 9 Dec 16:00

Liverpool V Aston Villa Sat 15 Dec 15:00

Liverpool V Fulham Sat 22 Dec 17:30

Stoke V Liverpool Wed 26 Dec 19:45

QPR V Liverpool Sun 30 Dec 16:00

Liverpool V Sunderland Wed 2 Jan 19:45

 

That bulk of games will be the critical point of the season. Most are very winnable, if we do what we should do, we're right in the mix for top four. Problem being though, that the 'easy' games are the ones we're insanely brilliant at f*cking up.

 

Aye. Normally Spurs are feared but they have problems so a point should be attainable. A couple draws but the remainder should be 3 points each - especially the homes. Rarely have an easier run of games at Anfield.

 

If Suarez can pick up his next caution away to West Ham after scoring and then squishing Fat Sam's cheeks and popping his gum out, Villa should be easy.

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If we win our next two (realistic or not), we'll be right in amongst them.

 

If we actually won 5 or 6 on the bounce, then i imagine we'd actually find ourselves in fourth place.

 

In order to substantiate this, below is a list of teams above us, upto 4th place, and who they face in their next 2 (or 3, for WHU) games....

 

Assuming we win those next 2 games, we'll be on 21 points...

 

Swansea (currently on 16):

Liverpool (h) (beat them and we're above them anyway)

WBA (h) (West Brom's away form has been poor at best, only 1 win in 5 away games)

Probably 3 points, taking their total to 19.

 

Fulham (currently on 16):

Stoke (a) (tricky place to go, Stoke unbeaten at home, Fulham not great away)

Chelsea (a) (cant see them winning this)

Likely to be 1 point, at most 3, taking their total to 19.

 

Spurs (currently on 17):

West Ham (h) (london derby, Spurs arent reliable but they'd probably win)

Liverpool (h) (on the assumption we win)

Probably 3 points, taking their total to 20.

 

West Ham (currently on 18):

Stoke (h) (likely to win)

Spurs (a) (probably lose)

Man Utd (a) (nailed on loss)

3 points, taking their total to 21.

 

Arsenal (currently on 19):

Villa (a) (surely an away win)

Everton (a) (could go any of the 3 ways but i'd say draw)

4 points, taking their total to 23.

 

Everton (currently on 20):

Norwich (h) (easy win)

Arsenal (h) (draw)

4 points, taking their total to 24.

 

WBA (currently on 23):

Sunderland (a) (West Brom are poor away, i'd say a draw here)

Swansea (a) (Another draw IMO)

2 points, taking their total to 25.

 

So all those things accounted for, and it'd be:

 

4th: WBA 25pts

5th: Everton 24pts

6th: Arsenal 23pts

7th: Liverpool 21pts

8th: West Ham 21pts

9th: Spurs 20pts

10th: Fulham 19pts

11th: Swansea 19pts

 

 

I know it's all ifs and buts.....but the origial point was that if we won our next 2 games, we'd be right amongst the race for 4th. And this shows just how quickly things could change.

Edited by DJS
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Aye. Normally Spurs are feared but they have problems so a point should be attainable. A couple draws but the remainder should be 3 points each - especially the homes. Rarely have an easier run of games at Anfield.

 

If Suarez can pick up his next caution away to West Ham after scoring and then squishing Fat Sam's cheeks and popping his gum out, Villa should be easy.

 

I've been thinking about this 5th yellow card for Suarez...i'm not sure holding out until WHU is likely. I'd accept it if he got booked at Spurs and then missed Southampton at home. They ship goals like sh*t, so if there was ever a game where we should just about cope without him, it's got to be Saints at Anfield.

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