An idiots guide to winning the league

[Swan Red]

Following on from a discussion in this thread here which was following on from a discussion elsewhere. I decided to review the team in the top 7's results against each other to see whether the idea of 6 point games has any merit. I decided on the top 7 for a couple of reasons, it gives us a breakdown of 12 games against the the top 7 and 26 games against the bottom 13. It's a ratio as close to 1/2 as I can get and it includes us the most.

 

The columns in the table are; Points won against the top 7, points total, points against the bottom 13, points per game against the top 7, points per game against the bottom 13. I've gone for 5 year so the sample size sucks but there's a couple of interesting points I think.

 

2012/2013

Manchester United...20 89 69 1.67 2.65

Manchester City.......17 78 61 1.42 2.35

Chelsea....................22 75 53 1.83 2.04

Arsenal....................11 73 62 0.92 2.38

Spurs.......................15 72 57 1.25 2.19

Everton....................15 63 48 1.25 1.85

Liverpool..................10 61 51 0.83 1.96

 

 

2011/2012

Manchester City.......27 89 62 2.25 2.38

Manchester United...21 89 68 1.75 2.62

Arsenal....................20 70 50 1.67 1.92

Spurs.......................12 69 57 1.00 2.19

Newcastle................12 65 53 1.00 2.04

Chelsea....................13 64 51 1.08 1.96

Everton....................13 56 43 1.08 1.65

 

 

2010/2011

Manchester United...21 80 59 1.75 2.27

Chelsea....................14 71 57 1.17 2.19

Manchester City.......12 71 59 1.00 2.27

Arsenal....................19 68 49 1.58 1.88

Spurs.......................14 62 48 1.17 1.85

Liverpool..................15 58 43 1.25 1.65

Everton....................19 54 35 1.58 1.35

 

 

2009/2010

Chelsea....................24 86 62 2.00 2.38

Manchester United...22 85 63 1.83 2.42

Arsenal....................10 75 65 0.83 2.50

Spurs.......................17 70 53 1.42 2.04

Manchester City.......16 67 51 1.33 1.96

Villa.........................19 64 45 1.58 1.73

Liverpool..................11 63 52 0.92 2.00

 

 

2008/2009

Manchester United...16 90 74 1.33 2.85

Liverpool..................26 86 60 2.17 2.31

Chelsea....................16 83 67 1.33 2.58

Arsenal....................18 72 54 1.50 2.08

Everton....................12 63 51 1.00 1.96

Villa......................... 5 62 57 0.42 2.19

Fulham.....................13 53 40 1.08 1.54

 

In 4 of the 5 years the team finishing 1st has had the best results against the top 7, in 2008-09 Manchester United won the league despite having worse results against the top 7.

In 2 of the 5 years the team finishing 1st has had the best results against the bottom 13. In 2011-12 Manchester United had the best results against the weaker teams and finished 2nd. In 2009-2010 Chelsea finished 1st and had worse results than both Arsenal and Manchester United, In 2010-11 Manchester United tied for points against the weaker teams with Chelsea who finished 3rd

 

In 4 of the 5 years the team finishing 5th has done at least as well as one of the teams in the top 4 against the top 7. However when we look specifically at 4th v 5th there's an interesting note, in 2 of the 5 years the result changes if the team that finished 5th turns a loss against the team that finished 4th into a draw. In another the result changes if the team finishing 5th turns a loss against the team that finishes 4th into a victory.

 

So the conclusions are less interesting than I thought they may be and the sample size is small but you can't just count on beating the dross and making up the numbers against the teams above you.

 

As a further aside in 2009-10 Liverpool averaged 2 points per game against the worst sides in the league, it's not been matched. It was the games against the rest of the top 7 that cost Benitez his job.

[New York Red]

That is awesomely impressive. So the bottom line is that if we do well against Arsenal, Spurs and Everton (based on last years form), we have a really good chance of getting fourth?

 

You didn't work out those averages yourself did you?

[Gunga Din]

my theory is a bit like this. to win the league you need 90 points, give or take. to ensure top 4, 75 points or there abouts

 

the league itself is 3 leagues within a league

 

you have the category A games

 

Man u, Man C, Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea and Spurs. so 12 games in total. from these games, and 36 points up for grabs

 

 

then category B games.

 

Villa, Swansea, Newcastle, West Brom, West Ham, , Southanpton, 12 games in total, and 36 points up for grabs

 

then category C games

 

Cardiff, Hull, Palace, Norwich, fulham Sunderland, Stoke, 14 games and 42 points up for grabs

 

 

there probably isnt a lot of difference in standard between a lot of category b and c games but my theory goes like this

 

if we can get 31 points from the Category C games, 26 points from the category B games and 18 points from the category A games, we would get 75 points and get in the top 4.

 

I think that we have the squad that could do that.

[New York Red]

Y'all should be strategists for the club. Great ideas.

[Cunny]

I'm still going with 38 1-0 victories.

[Conrad]

just goes to show that we were the better team in 08-09. Utd's results against the top 7 were really poor comapred to ours. Its the only example of the 5 though which supports the idea you can win the league by flat track bullying alone

[Cobs]

just goes to show that we were the better team in 08-09.

Which in turn shows we blew it really

[Rory Fitzgerald]

There is some contrast between Arsenal and Chelsea last season. Only 2pts between them despite Chelsea picking up twice as many points against the top 7.

 

Also, our 08/09 season saw us pick up 26pts against the top 7 which was 2nd only to City's 27.

 

In almost every year, Utd didn't notch up the most points against the top 7 yet were consistently better at winning points vs the the rest.

[Cobs]

In almost every year, Utd didn't notch up the most points against the top 7 yet were consistently better at winning points vs the the rest.

That's the fear factor they have over other sides - most markedly at OT

 

oh and CORRUPTION obviously

[Kvarme Ate My Food]

Which in turn shows we blew it really

 

Yeah.

But, as you wisely said at the time, we were always going to have to have a season running at it before we'd be ready to win it.

[Cobs]

Yeah.

But, as you wisely said at the time, we were always going to have to have a season running at it before we'd be ready to win it.

And we properly blew that

[Swan Red]

Which in turn shows we blew it really

 

They averaged 2.85 points per game from the weakest teams in the league. That's nuts flat track bullying.

[Cobs]

They averaged 2.85 points per game from the weakest teams in the league. That's nuts flat track bullying.

But we were the better team so....

[Swan Red]

But we were the better team so....

 

I tend to think the best team gets the most points.

[Cobs]

I tend to think the best team gets the most points.

Hey, this is your analysis

[Swan Red]

Hey, this is your analysis

 

I'm not saying we were the better team anywhere. What I am saying is that results against the better sides are often more decisive. It's one season and the only season that the team that did best against the top 7 failed to win. The team that does best against the worst teams fails to win more often.

Edited September 5, 2013 by Swan Red

[Cobs]

I think that Utd side squeezed every last point that they could get out of that season. I think we left quite a few out there v the weaker teams. Perhaps it was just down to experience but we blew it.

 

And the best team does get the most points

 

We were robbed in '89 though

Edited September 5, 2013 by Cobs

[Swan Red]

Yeah I agree with that, we took 6 points off them but they battered the weaker teams. Agree about 89

[Maldini]

Which in turn shows we blew it really

 

We've probably had this discussion before but United from November onwards is the best end of season run of form in modern football. The last 26 games they won 21, drew 3 and lost 2. We drew too many games but they were ridiculous at the end of the season.

[matty]

I think that Utd side squeezed every last point that they could get out of that season. I think we left quite a few out there v the weaker teams. Perhaps it was just down to experience but we blew it.

 

We had an abysmal run between November and February. It's heartbreaking to look back at.

[David Hodgson]

Following on from a discussion in this thread here which was following on from a discussion elsewhere. I decided to review the team in the top 7's results against each other to see whether the idea of 6 point games has any merit. I decided on the top 7 for a couple of reasons, it gives us a breakdown of 12 games against the the top 7 and 26 games against the bottom 13. It's a ratio as close to 1/2 as I can get and it includes us the most.

 

The columns in the table are; Points won against the top 7, points total, points against the bottom 13, points per game against the top 7, points per game against the bottom 13. I've gone for 5 year so the sample size sucks but there's a couple of interesting points I think.

 

2012/2013

Manchester United...20 89 69 1.67 2.65

Manchester City.......17 78 61 1.42 2.35

Chelsea....................22 75 53 1.83 2.04

Arsenal....................11 73 62 0.92 2.38

Spurs.......................15 72 57 1.25 2.19

Everton....................15 63 48 1.25 1.85

Liverpool..................10 61 51 0.83 1.96

 

 

2011/2012

Manchester City.......27 89 62 2.25 2.38

Manchester United...21 89 68 1.75 2.62

Arsenal....................20 70 50 1.67 1.92

Spurs.......................12 69 57 1.00 2.19

Newcastle................12 65 53 1.00 2.04

Chelsea....................13 64 51 1.08 1.96

Everton....................13 56 43 1.08 1.65

 

 

2010/2011

Manchester United...21 80 59 1.75 2.27

Chelsea....................14 71 57 1.17 2.19

Manchester City.......12 71 59 1.00 2.27

Arsenal....................19 68 49 1.58 1.88

Spurs.......................14 62 48 1.17 1.85

Liverpool..................15 58 43 1.25 1.65

Everton....................19 54 35 1.58 1.35

 

 

2009/2010

Chelsea....................24 86 62 2.00 2.38

Manchester United...22 85 63 1.83 2.42

Arsenal....................10 75 65 0.83 2.50

Spurs.......................17 70 53 1.42 2.04

Manchester City.......16 67 51 1.33 1.96

Villa.........................19 64 45 1.58 1.73

Liverpool..................11 63 52 0.92 2.00

 

 

2008/2009

Manchester United...16 90 74 1.33 2.85

Liverpool..................26 86 60 2.17 2.31

Chelsea....................16 83 67 1.33 2.58

Arsenal....................18 72 54 1.50 2.08

Everton....................12 63 51 1.00 1.96

Villa......................... 5 62 57 0.42 2.19

Fulham.....................13 53 40 1.08 1.54

 

In 4 of the 5 years the team finishing 1st has had the best results against the top 7, in 2008-09 Manchester United won the league despite having worse results against the top 7.

In 2 of the 5 years the team finishing 1st has had the best results against the bottom 13. In 2011-12 Manchester United had the best results against the weaker teams and finished 2nd. In 2009-2010 Chelsea finished 1st and had worse results than both Arsenal and Manchester United, In 2010-11 Manchester United tied for points against the weaker teams with Chelsea who finished 3rd

 

In 4 of the 5 years the team finishing 5th has done at least as well as one of the teams in the top 4 against the top 7. However when we look specifically at 4th v 5th there's an interesting note, in 2 of the 5 years the result changes if the team that finished 5th turns a loss against the team that finished 4th into a draw. In another the result changes if the team finishing 5th turns a loss against the team that finishes 4th into a victory.

 

So the conclusions are less interesting than I thought they may be and the sample size is small but you can't just count on beating the dross and making up the numbers against the teams above you.

 

As a further aside in 2009-10 Liverpool averaged 2 points per game against the worst sides in the league, it's not been matched. It was the games against the rest of the top 7 that cost Benitez his job.

 

Excellent work la.

 

I'm taking from that, that to get 4th you need 70 points (I'm all but discounting last season which looks a freak year).

 

That breaks down as about a 53 point average against the bottom 13, and 17 points against the bigger teams.

 

That says to me that against the big boys you need 3 or 4 wins from the 12 games and a load of draws. Historically speaking, that is.

 

 

In a league where we believe that the teams that finished above us last season remain stronger on paper, our focus should be on the bottom 13, and in not losing to (and hopefully winning against) our immediate rivals for 4th. Arsenal show the way last season, with (a record for 4th) of 62points against the crap, and just 11 against the top 7. It's true that recent history doesn't show that the flat track bullies prevail, but what it does show that if a team can focus its energies onto the weaker sides, that there are plenty more points to be taken than rivals will get. The truth is that our rivals for 4th will probably take just 53 points from 78 available (against the bottom 13). That's a lot of unnecessary points dropped against teams that should've been beaten on the day (in that the 4th placed contender would've been a strong favourite on each occasion).

 

I think we can conclude that games against immediate rivals (spurs & Arsenal) are 'six pointers', but those games aside, I'd want my strongest team out for Southampton at home as opposed to , say, Chelsea away.

Edited September 5, 2013 by David Hodgson

[dorgie]

We had an abysmal run between November and February. It's heartbreaking to look back at.

 

Bloody foreigners not liking the cold

 

 

(that was a joke, by the way)

[David Hodgson]

I'm not saying we were the better team anywhere. What I am saying is that results against the better sides are often more decisive. It's one season and the only season that the team that did best against the top 7 failed to win. The team that does best against the worst teams fails to win more often.

 

I think what 08/09 shows is that if you can turn those marginal games, that in truth can go either way, into wins, then you get a real boost to your points totals. That year, OT aside, our games against against our main rivals were close run things. The sort of games where you can play better and lose. If a run of those type of games go for you, then you have a real chance. Our win at the weekend was a classic example. Last year we were better in that fixture, but lost.

[Cobs]

We've probably had this discussion before but United from November onwards is the best end of season run of form in modern football. The last 26 games they won 21, drew 3 and lost 2. We drew too many games but they were ridiculous at the end of the season.

 

 

titles are won August to May

 

 

but they also had the added schitstorm of Styles, Webb, Marriner, Redknapp/Pavlyuchenko, Arshavin, Cahill, Macheda all helping them along the way

 

 

 

and despite all that 4 more points would have swung it

[David Hodgson]

We had an abysmal run between November and February. It's heartbreaking to look back at.

 

It's a tale that can be told with equal conviction in parallel universes. In one, we heroically hauled back a 10 point lead, and narrowly missed out to a team that were just scrapping wins, and finished with a points total that wins many leagues. In another, we failed to build on a good early run, where we got the rub of the green at key moments, and rather than seize the competition by the nose, we badly fell away when the pressure told. Our late come back was one of a team playing without pressure, in that it was United's to lose. The points totals were unusually high at the top end as the league was not a strong one that year.

 

Either way, it was the best non-trophy winning season any of us can remember.

 

titles are won August to May

 

 

but they also had the added schitstorm of Styles, Webb, Marriner, Redknapp/Pavlyuchenko, Arshavin, Cahill, Macheda all helping them along the way

 

 

 

and despite all that 4 more points would have swung it :rant:/>

 

It's a tragedy that doing them home and away didn't do it for us. We felt like moral champions.