Playing away in the second leg

[RP]

I have managed to convince myself that the fact we are away in the 2nd leg this year gives us no chance of progressing.

 

But, looking at the knock-out stages this year and last, it seems that it is not that much of a disadvantage - in 24 ties, 9 teams who were at home first progressed and 15 teams (this ratio distorted hugely by the 4 out of 4 in this years QFs) who were away first got through to the next round. Looking at the scorelines achieved in the first legs by the teams that eventually progressed doesn't give many clues either as to what is required tonight:

 

Home scores first:

 

0-0

0-0

1-0

1-0 (eventually won on pens)

2-0

2-1

1-1

2-2

3-2 (eventually won on pens)

 

Scoring at home appears to be key - not conceding at home also quite important. In summary, these stats tell us f*** all.

 

 

Never has a team not progressed if they have taken a 10-0 lead into the away second leg - I guess that has to be the target.

[Dan]

Inter & Juve have proved we're more than capable of doing the business at Anfield first.

 

If anything we're more suitable at defending a lead away from home and playing on the counter.

[Hassony]

Playing the second leg at anfield gives us an advantage because of the support factor

 

Playing the second leg at chelsea will not have that (white flags or not)

 

In the Uefa cup quarter finals all four teams that qualified played at home first

[psl]

Yep, Inter and Juve proved we can do it with the second leg away. We also did the hard work against Barca and PSV away, whilst also winning in Leverkusen. Alternatively we went out to Benfica with the second leg at home.

 

Obvious I know but it all depends on tonight. If we get a decent score to go there with, ideally with a clean sheet, the pressure is all on them. We'd then be in the lovely position, like we were at the San Siro, that an away goal almost ends the tie. We'd also get the advantage of being able to score an away goal during any extra time. That said, if tonight doens't go well then we'd be really up against it given our record at Stamford Bridge. Any penalties would also be at a hostile ground.

Edited April 22, 2008 by psl

[nvdm]

(this ratio distorted hugely by the 4 out of 4 in this years QFs)

 

Those results don't distort the statitistics one bit.

[RP]

Playing the second leg at anfield gives us an advantage because of the support factor

 

Playing the second leg at chelsea will not have that (white flags or not)

 

 

Stamford Bridge will be very interesting - they failed to create an atmosphere for either First Leg we have played there, surely they'll manage it for a second leg won't they?

[sutty]

I see it as very much like winning the toss and batting first in a test match

 

There's an advantage if you do your job first up (get the result on the board sort of thing)

 

Like Benfica knocking us out 2 years ago, a 1-0 away loss means that the advantage of being at home second is marginal.

 

I suppose the advantage is going back to a white hot atmosphere and needing a single goal.

[Tetti]

I'm content with being away second leg this time:

 

1 - look how close we were to going out on away goals to Arsenal when at home second leg

2 - we are now much more capable of scoring away there than we were in 2005 0r 2006

3 - it breaks the pattern of these games with them

[Hassony]

Stamford Bridge will be very interesting - they failed to create an atmosphere for either First Leg we have played there, surely they'll manage it for a second leg won't they?

 

By banning women?

[Tetti]

Playing the second leg at anfield gives us an advantage because of the support factor

 

Playing the second leg at chelsea will not have that (white flags or not)

 

In the Uefa cup quarter finals all four teams that qualified played at home first

 

so 2-1 then in favour?

[RP]

Those results don't distort the statitistics one bit.

 

Do they not? From 11-9 to 15-9?

 

They certainly change the picture over the (very short) sample period.

[nvdm]

Do they not? From 11-9 to 15-9?

 

They certainly change the picture over the (very short) sample period.

 

Distortion implies a lack of validity, though. I'm probably just being a pendant.

[Woodsyla]

Personally, I think it's a massive advantage to US having the second leg at home. I don't think it's a massive advantage to Chelsea so although we have lost an advantage we aren't disadvantaged (if that makes sense)

 

A clean sheet tonight is the most important thing. I reckon we will score in the away leg.

[sutty]

Distortion implies a lack of validity, though. I'm probably just being a pendant.

 

 

I think that they are distorted by the fact that the draw only threw up 1 marginal fixture (ours) and in all the others, the obvious winner was drawn away first

[RP]

Distortion implies a lack of validity, though. I'm probably just being a pendant.

 

Doesn't imply a lack of validity at all, IMO. But to satisfy your w***erishness pedantry, try reading the word "distorted" as "changed".

[JRC]

... Any penalties would also be at a hostile ground.

 

...thus even sweeter!

 

Remember- Roma '84.

[John am Rhein]

I see it as very much like winning the toss and batting first in a test match

 

There's an advantage if you do your job first up (get the result on the board sort of thing)

 

That's about right, IMO.

 

There's an opportunity to take an advantage, but no guarantee that this opportunity will be taken. And if you fail to take it, you find yourself at a disadvantage.

[JRC]

Even after we drew 1-1 at the Emirates - generally agreed to be a good result for the away team - , a lot of people were arguing that Arsenal were in a strong position to come to Anfield and win. (Which, to be fair, for about 30 seconds of the 83rd minute, they were).

 

Do the job right tonight, and the advantage is ours. Get it wrong, and we'll just to have to pull something out at the Bridge. np.

[Old red eyes]

It all depends on how the team at home in the first leg approach the game. Being an all Premiership battle i think it's quite different than playing the second leg away from British soil.

[Coyler]

It all depends on how the team at home in the first leg approach the game. Being an all Premiership battle i think it's quite different than playing the second leg away from British soil.

Thankfully it'll be just like playing on Rockall.

[D.Boon]

The threat of the away goal in the second leg as Arsenal did to us is massive though.

 

As long as we win the game tonight i will be happy even if Chelsea get a goal as i think they would be terrified of Torres at their place and i think we can score there.

 

My fear is not the arrangement of the ties but the probability of them not being done 3 times on the trot

[Flight]

In summary, these stats tell us f*** all.

 

I thought Kaizer had hacked into your account, until I got to this bit.

[Lee W]

That's about right, IMO.

 

There's an opportunity to take an advantage, but no guarantee that this opportunity will be taken. And if you fail to take it, you find yourself at a disadvantage.

 

Wise words mate

 

[Flasher]

I'm glad the second leg is at their place, honest.

 

It changes the feel of the tie. Our players can't be complacent, knowing the history of the second leg at Anfield in recent years.

 

Win at home, that's the most important thing in Europe.

 

If we win, they have to attack at the Bridge, making them very vulnerable to the counter attack of Gerrard, Torres and Babel.

 

I'll be over the moon if we win 2-1 tonight, though 2-0 would be better of course.

[JRC]

My fear is not the arrangement of the ties but the probability of them not being done 3 times on the trot

 

Although them being knocked out 3 times on the trot by the same team at the same stage is quite improbable, the hard part of that - the reason why it is improbable - is first getting to the point where they have been knocked out 2 times on the trot b-t-s-t-a-t-s-s. From that point on, it's decidedly less improbable. And if I'm not mistaken, that is where we currently stand. Probability, or 'The Law of Averages' offers them no succour, I'm glad to say.