Guardian club by club Premier League previews

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ARSENAL

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no1_ars.html

 

Premier League preview No1: Arsenal

 

Though their first-choice XI will still be able to pass even the best teams to death, injuries to a thin squad could well provoke another collapse

 

Paul Doyle

 

August 4, 2008 7:36 AM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 4th Odds: 5-1

 

This time last year many Arsenal fans feared Arsène Wenger had committed a terrible error by relinquishing Thierry Henry. They were wrong. But that hasn't stopped Gooners fretting again this summer - and this time their concern isn't about one radical decision, rather about the whole modus operandi of a manager who's won nothing for three seasons. So are Arsenal in the throes of systemic failure?

 

Answering yes seems alarmist. After all, despite the ruinous injuries that afflicted key players last season (Eduardo, Robin van Persie, Tomas Rosicky, Bacary Sagna and, um, Johann Djourou) they finished just four points behind the champions. They could have won the Champions League but for dubious penalty awards in both legs of the quarter-final against Liverpool. And in terms of their performances, they were regularly on snogging terms with perfection.

 

But the climax never came; and fate alone didn't foil them. Their misfortune was aggravated by some of Wenger's own decisions: his faith in Emmanuel Eboué (but not at right-back, even after Sagna got injured); his reluctance to truly trust Theo Walcott; his appointment of William Gallas as captain; and, perhaps most of all, his dogmatic refusal to build a bigger, better squad (it was only last September that Arsenal claimed £70m was available for the manager to spend on players if he so wished).

 

Even more worryingly for Arsenal fans, the club not only refrained from forking out for several new signings this summer, but have also failed to hold on to some key players. They've lost Mathieu Flamini, Alexander Hleb ... and possibly ground on their rivals, what with Chelsea continuing to go galactico and Liverpool splurging around £20m on a single player for the third time in a year (Robbie Keane following Fernando Torres and Javier Mascherano). Wenger's most expensive ever recruit remains Sylvain Wiltord, who cost £13m eight years ago (José Antonio Reyes didn't cost that much because various add-on clauses were never triggered).

 

In short, though Arsenal's first-choice XI will still be able to pass even the very best teams to death - they scored more goals than anyone else in the last 15 minutes of matches last season because opponents were so tired chasing them - the shallowness of their squad means a recurrence of last season's savage spate of injuries could well provoke another collapse.

 

Wenger has said he only needs to buy one more player before the season starts for his squad to be complete. The indications are he means a replacement for Flamini, which is hardly surprising given Gilberto and Lassana Diarra have also left. Flamini's No16 shirt has been given to Aaron Ramsey but it's unlikely the inventive 17-year-old is expected to slot straight into the role of holding midfielder; though, being so precocious, he will certainly feature in the first-team throughout the season. Abou Diaby lacks the requisite dynamism or poise to serve as more than a sub-adequate stop-gap. Denilson seems to have stagnated. Alexandre Song had an excellent African Cup of Nations in the Cameroonian midfield but doesn't seem to have convinced Wenger he can do it on a consistent basis. Indeed, he has been used as a makeshift centre-back in his recent club appearances. So none of the current options appears ideal. A reliable sidekick for Fábregas would be most welcome.

 

But the area where Arsenal are lightest is defence. The starting four are fine: Bacary Sagna is the best right-back in the league and Gaël Clichy is on a par with Patrice Evra. But the differential between them and their deputies is huge. Cover for Kolo Toure and Gallas is equally threadbare. Fielding Djourou or Philippe Senderos might suffice at home to Hull, but against one of the big boys they'd be a gap waiting to be exploited. Again, it's difficult to envisage Arsenal emerging from a full season ahead of Chelsea, in particular.

 

Mind you, it's even more difficult to imagine them slipping out of the top four, and if we turn to their positives, we may even conclude that they're more likely to move up than down. For a start, as Wenger and the players repeatedly insist, they are a season older and a season wiser. They should be more composed, and more ruthless. We're unlikely, for example, to see a reprise of the Birmingham fiasco, when Emmanuel Adebayor spurned a match-clinching goal by refusing to pass to Nicklas Bendtner, and Gallas infamously imitated a thwarted teenager sulking in his bedroom to a My Chemical Romance soundtrack.

 

Secondly, they still have immense quality, particularly as the precious (in both senses of the word) Adebayor appears to be staying. Flamini may not yet have been replaced, but Hleb has: Samir Nasri will more than compensate for his departure. Yes, he will take time to adapt to the Premier League and even at Marseille, where he was well established, inconsistent spells betrayed his youth. But this gem of a player requires a lot less polishing than other prospects Wenger has previously signed and soon he will be up to speed; already he can carry the ball as well as Hleb and he offers the same vision and technique that enables Cesc Fábregas to spot and deliver killer passes quickly. He also shares Fábregas's mental maturity. The one concession Wenger will make to his inexperience in England is to initially deploy him wide rather than in the middle.

 

Elsewhere, Wenger has emphatically insisted he doesn't need to bolster his strikeforce. He should be right, but it's a bold claim given Eduardo's condition and Van Persie's brittleness and the fact is that Bendtner is too gauche to thrive at Arsenal and Carlos Vela may only be ready for League Cup action.

 

And then there's the case of Walcott. So far in pre-season he has been used wide on the right, which makes sense insofar as he is undoubtedly better there than Eboué and will surely send in enough crosses for Arsenal to repeat their feat of last season, when they scored more from crosses than any other team apart from Tottenham. However, Wenger must also be tempted to revert to a 4-4-2, at least for some games, and stick Walcott, rather than Van Persie, through the middle with instructions to use his phenomenal speed in the way Nicolas Anelka once did.

 

A good start helped Arsenal build confidence last season and a benign fixture list should again enable them get into their stride this term. Their first six matches are against West Brom (H), Fulham (A), Newcastle (H), Blackburn (A), Bolton (A) and Hull (H). A powerful opening would reinforce the steel forged by the disappointing end to the last campaign.

 

Overall, then, you can see why Wenger refuses to abandon his faith in his methods, even if it's starting to feel increasingly quixotic. If practice backs up his theories and Arsenal win the league it would, bearing in mind how their rivals have been flexing their financial muscle, be the manager's greatest achievement to date.

 

IN: Aaron Ramsey (Cardiff - £5m), Samir Nasri (Marseille - £11m), Amaury Bischoff (Werder Bremen - undisclosed)

 

OUT: Mathieu Flamini (Milan - free), Jens Lehmann (Stuttgart - free), Alexander Hleb (Barcelona - £12m), Gilberto Silva (Panathinaikos - £1m), Kerrea Gilbert (Leicester - loan)

[Cunny]

ASTON VILLA

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no2_ast.html

Premier League preview No2: Aston Villa

 

The parameters within which Villa operate in the Premier League remain extremely narrow. Last season's sixth-place finish might be as good as it gets

 

Barney Ronay

 

August 4, 2008 1:25 PM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 6th Odds: 250-1

 

It's been a grim summer at the Villa. Gareth Barry's will-he-won't-he-oh-please-just-make-it-stop attempt to jump ship for Liverpool has been seized upon as prime back-page filler for broadsheet and tabloid alike. At the time of writing it looks as though Barry will leave the club, having provided both: a) a hugely distracting saga in the middle of Martin O'Neill's summer recruitment plans; and b) a vicious punch to the solar plexus of squad morale.

 

Barry was the team's outstanding performer last season. Only time will tell if he can repeat that level of performance - whether he is in Birmingham or Liverpool - after his summer of shenanigans. Villa could certainly do with him: the squad remains paper-thin. Wilfred Bouma's dislocated ankle suffered in the first Uefa Cup qualifying round against Odense leaves O'Neill without a recognised full-back, highlighting the failure to replace Olof Mellberg after his move to Juventus. In pre-season Craig Gardner has filled in at right-back, with mixed results. Last January Wayne Routledge was signed to plug the other hole on that flank at right-midfield, but has appeared only briefly. It's a weakness Premier League teams will exploit.

 

What signings the manager has been able to make look encouraging enough in isolation: Brad Friedel is an excellent mid-term option in goal. Steve Sidwell for £5m seems fair, providing O'Neill can somehow get his new midfield scuffler to become the whole-hearted player he was at Reading rather than the confused-looking bit-part man he always seemed at Chelsea. The conversion of Curtis Davies's loan spell into a permanent deal is good news too, even if the £8m price tag seems a little steep.

 

A lack of strength in depth has been Villa's most obvious flaw over the last couple of seasons and a large part of their inconsistency. At the start of last December they were just three points behind Manchester United. By May that had grown to 27 after a distinctly up-and-down second half of the season: their last six games saw a run of scoring 15 goals in thrashing Derby, Bolton and Birmingham, followed by a run of two draws and a defeat against Everton, Wigan and West Ham.

 

The lack of numbers also blunted what remains of Villa's main strength, a lively hand of attackers. Gabriel Agbonlahor scored six in his first 13 Premier League games last season, followed by just one in his next 18, with O'Neill struggling to give him a proper break. This is a big season for Agbonlahor, who needs to leaven his pace and strength - and occasionally wonderful cockiness - with a little more calmness in front of goal. Despite being included in Fabio Capello's first England squad and talked up by some as a possible replacement for Michael Owen, he does sometimes show only a passing familiarity with how to control a football.

 

Some reinforcements up front might help. Various striking additions have been mooted: Nikola Žigić and Peter Crouch might have tickled O'Neill's fancy for a big man, as would old pal Emile Heskey. To date Villa are left with just Agbonlahor, John Carew and Marlon Harewood as out-and-out attackers, ably supported by the team's chief attacking threat, Ashley Young, and less ably by the only-sporadically-twinkling Shaun Maloney. Behind them O'Neill will be hoping for a belated dividend on the £6.5m paid for Stillian Petrov two years ago. The Bulgarian finished the season in his best form in a Villa shirt. Now would be the perfect moment to rediscover the creative verve he showed at Celtic.

 

Still, this is a team that will continue to score goals: Villa finished with the third-highest total in the top tier last year, and the most from set pieces. Not conceding them will be more of a problem, although lassoing in a couple of full-backs to go with a decent hand of centre-backs could make all the difference there.

 

The parameters within which a club like Villa operates in the Premier League remain extremely narrow. Last season's sixth place finish might be as good as it's likely to get for a relatively small squad playing in a mid-size stadium, with a relatively parsimonious billionaire owner (net spending over two years: £35.5m). Fifth this year is a possibility, fourth would be a step up into a different universe and anything lower an anti-climax. Against that it's not immediately obvious in which areas Villa are likely to improve significantly from last time out. It could be a difficult third season in charge for O'Neill.

 

In: Curtis Davis (WBA - £8m); Steve Sidwell (Chelsea - £5m); Brad Friedel (£2m - Blackburn), Brad Guzan (£2m - Chivas USA)

 

Out: Olof Mellberg (Juventus - free); Luke Moore (WBA - £3m); Thomas Sorensen (Stoke - free); Patrik Berger (Sparta Prague - free); Damian Bellon (FC Vaduz - free)

[Cunny]

BLACKBURN

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no3_bla.html

Premier League preview No3: Blackburn Rovers

 

Paul Ince's big-time experience and galvanising qualities are what Rovers will seek to harness as they look to push on this season

 

Barney Ronay

 

August 5, 2008 8:27 AM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 14th Odds: 1,000-1

 

This summer Blackburn became not just the first top-level club to appoint a black British manager, but also the first in the short history of the Premier League to sign a manager from the fourth tier. No pressure, then, Paul Ince.

 

Fortunately, Ince isn't the type to be cowed by a challenge. He also seems to have an antenna for organising a team, having saved Macclesfield from slipping out of the Football League and then won League Two with MK Dons in his only season there. In the Premier League it's Ince's big-time experience and galvanising guv'nor-type qualities that Blackburn will seek to harness as they look to push on from the plateau of consistent achievement under Mark Hughes.

 

So far Ince has already had to do a fair bit of managing over the summer: bringing in Paul Robinson for Brad Friedel for a net spend of £1m looks like decent enough business. Persuading itchy-feet David Bentley to stay would have been even better, although Ince will surely make some immediate use of the £15m transfer fee paid by Spurs.

 

Under Hughes Rovers had become settled in a comfortable groove in the upper-middle reaches of the Premier League, finishing seventh, 10th and sixth in the last three seasons without ever really threatening to gatecrash the party at the top. Over the same period Hughes' debts in the transfer market added up to a net £9.5m. It's hard to see how Ince can really hope to improve on this without a major injection of cash - unlikely as the Jack Walker fund trustees are providing £3m, partly as a result of Hughes's astute balancing of the books.

 

Instead Ince will rely on his own mercurial motivational powers; the Bentley money; and, for want of anything better, the as-yet-untapped tactical genius of his new backroom defensive guru Nigel Winterburn.

 

The new manager does at least inherit a well-stocked playing squad. Roque Santa Cruz, Benni McCarthy, Jason Roberts and Matt Derbyshire make up a potent-looking forward quartet. On the downside McCarthy spent last season fumbling about for his best form while Santa Cruz had a freakishly - and perhaps unrepeatably - fine time in front of goal. Inviting Robbie Fowler along is a bold, if doomed, move to add a little left-field goal threat.

 

The midfield has been settled for a couple of seasons, but with the 37-year-old Tugay enjoying what looks like his final languid hurrah and Morten Gamst Pedersen less effective than the previous season, it may be here Ince looks to inject some pep. Talk of a £2m bid for the MK Dons captain Keith Andrews has failed to progress, while the likes of Steven Davis, Aaron Lennon, James Milner, James McFadden and Mark Bresciano have all been fingered as targets at one point or another. So far, the loan acquisition of Chilean player of the year Carlos Villanueva and Brett Emerton's new four-year deal have been the most heartening bits of business on the outfield front.

 

The defence also looks fairly solid: Andre Ooijer was one of the stars of the group stages of Euro 2008 and will be looking to push Christopher Samba and Ryan Nelsen for a starting place in the centre. The only real imponderable at the back is the form of Robinson, for whom this could be a career-defining move. With no experienced keeping cover in the squad, Ince needs his man to get over his two-year spell of the yips.

 

If room for improvement looks capped by a lack of spending power, things could still quite easily go the other way. Blackburn have taken a huge gamble with an innovative managerial appointment. At the same time they've failed to provide the kind of team-building funds a more experienced manager would have demanded. Ince will be desperate to earn himself some breathing space by getting off to a good start. Anything else could see the accumulated confidence of the Hughes era draining away very quickly. Either way, it should be fascinating to watch.

 

In: Paul Robinson (Tottenham - £3m), Carlos Villanueva (Audax Italiano - season-long loan), Danny Simpson (Manchester United - season-long loan)

 

Out: Brad Friedel (Aston Villa - £2m), David Bentley (Tottenham - initial £15m), Peter Enckelman (released), Stephane Henchoz (released), Bruno Berner (released), Raffaele de Vita (Livingston - free)

[Cunny]

BOLTON

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no4_bol.html

 

Premier League preview No4: Bolton Wanderers

 

Gary Megson's men will do enough to ensure a successful campaign - given that success round these parts is defined solely by survival

 

Scott Murray

 

August 5, 2008 1:08 PM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 18th Odds: 5,000-1

 

Earlier this year, having reached the last 16 of the Uefa Cup, Gary Megson fielded a pathetically weakened side against Sporting Lisbon. In the event, his strongest team would have been more than capable of beating mediocre opponents who went out in the next round to eventual finalists Rangers, no great shakes themselves; a semi-final place at least had been there for the taking. Still, the reasoning behind Megson's attitude - prioritising Premier League survival - would be vindicated by the end of the season. That football has come to this.

 

So will it have been worth it? Bolton's campaign this season will surely need to be a memorable one to compensate for the spurned chance of rare European glory, else what is the point of bothering at all? The chance of it being so, however, is unlikely. Megson's appointment last October was met with indifference at best, but within a few months he had transformed a team getting turned over almost every week into one that became noticeably harder to beat, late-season aberrations against Blackburn and Aston Villa notwithstanding. They were even able to frustrate championship wannabes Chelsea on the final day of the season.

 

That solidity should remain - Megson's sides are nothing if not well organised at the back, with newly arrived holding midfielder Fabrice Muamba tightening it up - but with Bolton having lost their best two creative players in Nicolas Anelka and El-Hadji Diouf, goals might have a worrying rarity value. This problem has been addressed with two flagship signings. Johan Elmander had a dreadful Euro 2008 for Sweden - his performance against Spain in particular was a club-footed disgrace, the player barely able to trap the ball - but in fairness Elmander, an out-and-out centre forward, was deployed out of position on the wing. His two seasons at Toulouse were generally regarded a success - he reached double figures in both campaigns and was a firm crowd favourite - but plenty of players have shone in Ligue 1 only to come unstuck in England. It could go either way.

 

Bolton have also landed Mustapha Riga from Levante; the Dutch winger scored eight times last season in a godawful side and was Levante's sole success during a shambolic campaign that ended in ignominious relegation. He's quick and skillful but wildly inconsistent - so he should be able to fill Diouf's boots without much of a problem.

 

Unless Elmander and Riga both turn out to be utter disasters, Bolton should do just about enough to ensure another successful campaign - given success round these parts seems to be defined solely by survival since Sam Allardyce left (though some of my colleagues are convinced Bolton are going down, as reflected in the prediction at the top of this piece, which is a collation of the forecasts of seven guardian.co.uk scribes). European qualification, certainly, is way beyond the reach of Megson's side, but then nobody wants to clutter up next season's schedule with glory fixtures, do they?

 

In: Fabrice Muamba (Birmingham - £5m), Johan Elmander (Toulouse - £11m), Mustapha Riga (Levante - undisclosed)

 

Out: Ivan Campo (released), Stelios Giannakopoulos (released), Andranik Teymourian (Fulham - free), Daniel Braaten (exchange for Elmander - Toulouse), El-Hadji Diouf (Sunderland - undisclosed)

[Cunny]

CHELSEA

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no5_che.html

 

Premier League preview No5: Chelsea

 

With a canny manager and the most talented squad in the league, expect at least one trophy to head to Stamford Bridge

 

Paolo Bandini

 

August 6, 2008 8:09 AM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 1st Odds: 15/8

 

He might not think he's all that special, but Chelsea fans are confident that life under Luiz Felipe Scolari will be more than just so-so. Last season the Blues came within two points of the title and one shanked penalty of winning the Champions League with a manager whose methods were "25 years behind the times". How, then, might they fare under the guidance of a World Cup winning manager?

 

Recent revisionism has seen Avram Grant's reign cast in a more favourable light, yet his tactical naivety cost Chelsea at crucial moments last season. Chelsea's inability to close out a win at Tottenham in March - where they led 1-0, 3-1 and then 4-3 before drawing 4-4 - was a damning indictment of Grant, but it was in Moscow where his inexperience was most painfully exposed. He wasn't the only one caught off guard by Manchester United's return to 4-4-2, but it was foolish to assume - as Grant very publicly did - that Sir Alex Ferguson would have no surprises in store after his team had been outmuscled and outplayed less than a month earlier at Stamford Bridge.

 

Scolari's supposedly combustible personality has already led to much speculation about how he will handle Ferguson's "mind-games", yet Chelsea should be more concerned with how they approach games against lesser opponents. Last season they beat United and Arsenal at Stamford Bridge yet still contrived to draw seven times there in the league, including matches against Wigan, Bolton and Fulham.

 

Chelsea scored just twice in those three games, and Scolari's testing of a 4-4-2 formation this pre-season is driven by the need to avoid any repeat of that, rather than any desire to "entertain" his owner Roman Abramovich. Scolari's natural preference may be for 4-2-3-1 - though he had little choice but to use it in Portugal, given the country's wealth of attacking midfielders and dearth of strikers - but he also knows Chelsea cannot afford another month like last September, when they failed to score in four consecutive league games and picked up just two points as a consequence.

 

Chelsea hardly need worry about the defensive implications of fielding one fewer midfielder. Their back four is formidable, and will be all the more so following the signing of José Bosingwa - not only a more accomplished defender than Juliano Belletti, but quicker and more energetic going forward. On the other side, Ashley Cole has quietly increased his consistency after a patchy start to life at Chelsea, and his deputy, Wayne Bridge, remains more talented than all but a handful of other sides' starters.

 

The greatest move Chelsea made all summer, though, was simply to retain Ricardo Carvalho, who at one point looked set to join Jose Mourinho at Internazionale. John Terry, as captain, may be commonly perceived as the beating heart of Chelsea's back four but the statistics suggest the club's best-paid player is not all that. Last season Chelsea picked up 2.62 points per game when Carvalho was playing, compared with just 1.76 when he was absent, while the club actually gained fewer when Terry played (2.09) than when he didn't (2.47). The latter is an anomaly - caused in part by Terry playing through injuries - but then Chelsea did not miss Terry that much in 2006-07 either, when they gained 2.21 with him and 2.10 without. In the same year they gained 2.35 with Carvalho, and 1.43 without.

 

Both will start when fit, of course, especially given Alex's at-times-unconvincing displays in their absence last year, but the picture is far less clear elsewhere. Neither formation will permit Scolari to find room for Michael Essien, Deco, Michael Ballack, Frank Lampard and Jon Obi Mikel in one midfield. Essien's muscular dynamism makes him the most secure - Chelsea were instantly more vulnerable whenever he was removed from midfield to fill in at right-back last season.

 

Mikel looks ready to replace the departed Claude Makelele as the resident destroyer, but the other three must already be wondering which of them will be playing 2008-09's Steve Sidwell. Deco may have been criticised for losing interest at Barcelona last season, but given the proportion of his team-mates who had done likewise it is tempting to blame the coaching, and he still seemed to save his best for the biggest games. Ballack, meanwhile, was a driving force in Chelsea's end-of-season surge, and it may yet be that Lampard finds himself wishing he had been more receptive to Inter's advances. Either way, Scolari will need to massage a few egos if he is to prevent dressing room unrest.

 

If Chelsea's luxury of riches appears to give Scolari a pleasant dilemma in the middle, there are more vexing questions elsewhere. Joe Cole, on the field for more minutes than any other Chelsea player last season, was the club's only consistent performer on either wing, whilst Didier Drogba's a sulkiness and frequent absence deprived the club of its only consistent goalscoring striker.

 

Scolari has named both Florent Malouda and Andriy Shevchenko as players he believes can be rehabilitated and for all that the mere mention of those names provokes groans among some supporters, he is right to do so. Malouda would not be the first player to struggle in his first Premier League season only to go on to greater things, and Scolari believes he can bring more out of the player by relaxing his defensive responsibilities. Shevchenko, meanwhile, was actually the team's most clinical finisher last term. His five goals came at a rate of one goal every 148.2 minutes on the pitch - better even than Drogba (one every 191.1 minutes). Salomon Kalou and Claudio Pizarro each required more than 300 minutes per goal, while Nicolas Anelka's one strike in 14 appearances speaks for itself. Opta stats also show Shevchenko led the team's strikers for percentage of shots on target (59%) and "chance conversion" (23%).

 

Drogba, of course, has already shown he can do better if sufficiently healthy and motivated, while Anelka, who scored four in a friendly against Milan last week, is too talented not to do better this term. Simply allowing him to play in his natural role through the middle would bring instant improvement. The highly-rated Argentine 19-year-old Franco di Santo may also make an impact before the season is over.

 

The bookies make Manchester United favourites for the title but Chelsea have a more talented squad and were undone last year only by a United team elevated by Ferguson and the league's best player in Cristiano Ronaldo. This season, Chelsea have a canny manager of their own, while Ronaldo looks set to miss the first two months of the season for United. With the margins at the top as slim as they have been in nearly a decade, Chelsea don't hope to win the league, they expect it. If they don't manage it, Phil Scolari could be out of work come May.

 

In: José Bosingwa (Porto - £16.2m), Deco (Barcelona - £7m)

 

Out: Steve Sidwell (Aston Villa - £5m), Hernán Crespo (Inter - free), Khalid Boulahrouz (Stuttgart - undisclosed), Claude Makelele (Paris St Germain - free), Ben Sahar (Portsmouth - loan), Jimmy Smith (Sheffield Wednesday - loan), Ryan Bertrand (Norwich - loan), Tal Ben Haim (Manchester City - undisclosed), Harry Worley (Leicester - free)

[Cunny]

EVERTON

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no6_eve.html

 

Premier League preview No6: Everton

 

Unless a threadbare squad is rapidly reinforced, David Moyes will struggle to mastermind a repeat of last season's fifth-place finish

 

Paul Doyle

 

August 6, 2008 1:18 PM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 8th Odds: 150-1

 

Everton are going down this season. Not all the way to the relegation zone obviously, just somewhere below last season's fifth-place perch. How far below depends on what they do before the transfer window closes.

 

Already last season they had one of the smallest squads in the league. A lack of cover not only meant they couldn't withstand injuries but also that Moyes could rarely rest or rotate players, which is no doubt why 70% of the goals Everton conceded came in the second half - the highest proportion in the league. This summer, then, they've responded to recruitment by the likes of Villa, Tottenham, Portsmouth and Manchester City by buying a grand total of zero players - while letting several go.

 

Like a backward Sex Pistol, Moyes knows what he wants but doesn't know how to get it: he wants enough lolly to bring in "five or six" new faces, but his exasperated warbling and pointed refusal to sign a new contract has so far failed to get it. If things keep on like this, he'd be a decent bet to be the first manager to leave his post this term, if bookies hadn't already made him strong favourite.

 

Let's take stock. On the plus side, Everton have a fine goalkeeper in Tim Howard; and a back four of Phil Neville, Joseph Yobo, Phil Jagielka and Joleon Lescott is not only difficult to penetrate but also a serious threat going forward, scoring 22% of the side's goals last season.

 

On the right-hand side of midfield Mikel Arteta is a cerebral schemer that would grace most teams, and also an unerring deliverer from the set-pieces that Everton exploit so well. On the left Steven Pienaar is tidy and dynamic. Leon Osman is useful too.

 

Up front Yakubu guarantees goals. And between the front and the middle will come Tim Cahill, whose imminent return from injury will lift at least some of the Goodison gloom. Over the last six years no Premier League manager has bought from the Championship more astutely than Moyes, and the Australian Paul Scholes, signed from Millwall in 2004 for a mere £1.5m, is the most sparkling proof of this.

 

Now back to the down side. Everton currently have even less cover for their key players than they had last season, when injuries to Cahill and Arteta hamstrung their challenge for fourth place, an erstwhile impressive season petering out with just two wins in the last nine games. If Andy Johnson completes his switch to Fulham, Yakubu will have to stay fit for every game - because Victor Anichebe is no proper stand-in and Jose Baxter, clearly a rising talent, is only 16.

 

The biggest problem with Everton's squad, however, concerns central midfielders: they don't have any. Phil Neville could fill in there but Moyes prefers to use him at right-back. The only other option is Jack Rodwell, who has imposed himself impressively on the pre-season friendlies but, at 17, is unlikely to be able to do that over the course of a Premier League season. Joao Moutinho, the tiny but inspirational Sporting Lisbon captain, would be an excellent addition but so far the Everton board has failed to rustle up the required fee.

 

There really is little point moaning about the lack of reliable back-up in goal, defence or attack so long as Everton don't even have a starting midfield. No wonder Moyes is miffed. Just how did a team that qualified for the Champions League in 2005 and has finished fifth and sixth in the last two seasons get into a situation whereby it now seems they must fill a far-off new stadium before being able to adequately fill their team sheet?

 

In: Pessimism (free)

 

Out: Lee Carsley (Birmingham - free), Darren Dennehy (Cardiff - nominal fee), Aidan Downes (Yeovil - free), Thomas Gravesen (Celtic - loan return), Manuel Fernandes (end of loan), Jamie Jones (Leyton Orient - free)

[R A Softlad]

In - Pessimism.

[CaptainXabi]

In - Pessimism.

Absolute class

[Guest RedLegend]

Arsenal predicted 4th and Chelsea 1st.

 

Presumably they are predicting 3rd for us then.

[CaptainXabi]

Arsenal predicted 4th and Chelsea 1st.

 

Presumably they are predicting 3rd for us then.

Hard to argue with us at 3rd really. I hope and believe we'll do better, but it's a fair assessment.

[Stevie H]

jose baxter is a brilliant name.

[Cunny]

FULHAM

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no7_ful.html

 

Premier League preview No7: Fulham

 

It's never easy to pre-judge a team who've been revamped so quickly, but Roy Hodgson's team could well avoid another nerve-shredding dogfight

 

Paul Doyle

 

August 7, 2008 9:22 AM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 15th Odds: 1,000-1

 

One of the most amusing quirks of the early stages of a new season is that often, for a few precious weeks, someone totally preposterous can boast of being the Premier League's top scorer. Who amongst us can keep a straight face when thinking back to August 2005, for example, when the country's deadliest predator was ... Geoff Horsfield?

 

At the same point the following season the nation's most prolific marksman was Bobby Zamora, who in the first four games struck five goals, mostly miscued efforts that bobbled in off his a***. He failed to find the net for the next 18 matches but rediscovered his killer touch sufficiently to bring his overall tally to a top-flight career best of 11. Respectable, but hardly enough to convince you the West Ham cast-off is the man to score the goals that will save Fulham from another harrowing relegation fight. Which, of course, is why Roy Hodgson is about to sign Andrew Johnson.

 

Two of the teams that went down last season did so despite scoring more goals than Fulham. Though the Premier League records of Zamora and Johnson are patchy, Roy Hodgson can be confident that prosecuting pundits won't use their signings as evidence against him in the way they did Kevin Davies's a decade ago at Blackburn (signed for £7.5m, Davies didn't score a single goal during Hodgson's tenure).

 

Johnson still has the speed to terrorise defences (and a much greater work-rate than the disappointing Diomansy Kamara, who's only marginally less dynamic now that he's injured) and if Hodgson can restore the confidence that appears to have been dented at Everton, he could recapture his Crystal Palace form. Unlike Johnson, Zamora was not bought to hit the target so much as to be a target; his physicality, endeavour and ability to hold the ball up could make him an adequate replacement for Brian McBride, who was a highly useful forward despite never getting into double figures in a Premier League season.

 

Behind that strikeforce will be a midfield full of invention and industry, though it's still short of a reliable threat on the left. The ''Jimmy Bullard back to Wigan'' story was one of the strangest of the summer and it's hard to believe Hodgson ever had any intention of letting go of a player whose return from injury last season was central to the club's last-gasp survival (stat alert: at 83%, Bullard had a better pass completion rate than luminaries such as Cesc Fabregas and Steven Gerrard).

 

Danny Murphy will always create chances, particularly as he's become so enamoured of Hodgson's style, both in terms of the type of football he strives to play and his anti-Benítez willingness to encourage players to share their tactical thoughts. Zoltan Gera should prove to be another smart acquisition and Simon Davies can again be expected to penetrate down the right. In addition to creating chances, that's a midfield that should weigh in with a decent share of goals.

 

At the back, Fulham should be more solid than under Lawrie Sanchez. They'll be taller at least, which is a good start considering that no team conceded more goals from headers than them last season; giant Norwegian Brede Hangeland gradually shored things up when he arrived in January, with the relatively quick Aaron Hughes compensating for his lack of pace. Cover for that pair remains short, however. In goal summer signing Mark Schwarzer is a slight upgrade on Kasey Keller, and both John Pantsil and Fredrik Stoor have been brought in to beef up the right-back berth.

 

It's never easy to pre-judge a team who've been revamped so quickly and that's perhaps the main reason why Fulham were the side that provoked the widest range of opinion among guardian.co.uk writers - the prediction you see at the top of this piece masks the fact that the seven scribes surveyed forecast very varied finishes, from ninth to 18th. This one reckons Hodgson is an excellent team-builder and therefore thinks Danny Murphy will achieve his goal, which he recently described thus: "We're probably not going to go straight from fighting relegation to challenging for a European place so realistically - though it sounds naff - mid-table obscurity wouldn't be a bad achievement."

 

In: Mark Schwarzer (Middlesbrough - free), Bobby Zamora & John Pantsil (West Ham - £6.3m combined), Zoltan Gera (West Brom - free), Andranik Teymourian (Bolton - free), Toni Kallio (BSC Young Boys - free) David Stockdale (Darlington - undisclosed), Fredrik Stoor (Rosenborg - £4m), Pascal Zuberbühler (free).

 

Out: Carlos Bocanegra (released), Jari Litmanen (released), Philippe Christanval (released), Simon Elliott (released), Ian Pearce (released), Michael Timlin (released), Ismael Ehui (released), Bjorn Runstrom (released), Brian McBride (Chicago Fire - free), Tony Warner (Hull - free), Dejan Stefanovic (Norwich - undisclosed), Elliot Omozusi (Norwich - loan), Batista (Sporting Lisbon - £100,000).

[Damian_de]

The level of analysis on these is laughable really. They've signed him, him and him, and sold him and him, therefore, up 2 places.

[Gerry]

The level of analysis on these is laughable really. They've signed him, him and him, and sold him and him, therefore, up 2 places.

 

Not sure what else you're expecting to be honest. Any prediction that tries to pinpoint the exact finishing position of every team in the league is hardly going to be anything more than "a bit of fun". Nothing wrong with them at all in my opinion - certainly nothing that leads to them being called "laughable".

[Sion]

In - Pessimism.

 

I wouldn't laugh

They're about to bring in Alan Smith

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then you can laugh

[Damian_de]

Not sure what else you're expecting to be honest. Any prediction that tries to pinpoint the exact finishing position of every team in the league is hardly going to be anything more than "a bit of fun". Nothing wrong with them at all in my opinion - certainly nothing that leads to them being called "laughable".

Well, for sure I didn't expect much, and of course the final placing prediction is 'just for fun', I just find it laughable in terms of the fact that someone was actually paid to write that for a supposedly 'credible' media source. Surely this season's fortunes depend on more than the player in's and out's over the summer?

 

*shrug*

 

I'm unlikely to stay awake at night worrying abot it

[Kahnee]

The level of analysis on these is laughable really. They've signed him, him and him, and sold him and him, therefore, up 2 places.

 

It's opinion, not fact

 

Sorry if this hadn't been made clear to you

[Cunny]

HULL

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no8_hul.html

 

Premier League preview No8: Hull City

 

It would be beautifully mad if Hull survived but it's not going to happen

 

Paul Doyle

 

August 7, 2008 2:09 PM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 20th Odds: 10,000-1

 

Hull (population: 255,982), a city in north-east England, soon to be twinned with Derby.

 

That, at least, is most people's expectation. But what do most people know? When the Tigers were locked out of their own decrepit Boothferry Park home and on the brink not merely of relegation to the Conference but of extinction, did the casual majority confidently tip them to be hobnobbing with Manchester United and Chelsea within less than a decade? How many pub prophets foresaw Hull's arrival amid the footballing elite when, just 17 months ago, they borrowed a rotund 37-year-old striker from Bradford in a seemingly desperate attempt to avoid demotion to League One?

 

Every now and again a special club comes along and explodes expectations, exposing conventional wisdom as a conspiracy of dunces. Hull, who've stormed from the fourth tier to the top flight in five seasons, may just be such a club. They've got Phil Brown, a tenacious young manager who, as Sam Allardyce's assistant, was central to Bolton's improbable consolidation in the Premier League. They've got Ian Ashbee, the feisty midfielder who was once so highly rated that Derby lent him out to crack Icelandic outfit IR Knattspyrnudeild ... but who recovered from that ignominy to captain Hull every step of the way from League Two to the promised land.

 

And, of course, they've got Dean Windass, a living legend in any language: the hero who's sale to Aberdeen in 1995 kept his hometown club alive; who then managed to cop three red cards in a single match in Scotland; who in January 2007 returned to the Tigers on loan to hit the goals that kept them in the Championship and finished the season as top scorer for Hull and Bradford; who relentlessly cajoles and inspires and invigorates his less plump team-mates; who last season volleyed in a glorious Wembley winner that sent his hometown club to the top flight for the first time its 104-year history; who in the course of this season will turn 40.

 

They've got ... they've got ... oh sod it, they've got no chance. And they know it. Their bankrollers' whole strategy seems to be based on recognising that the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship is far wider than anything they've bridged so far. Whereas Sunderland survived last season with the high-risk approach of splurging frantically in the hope of hitting on a successful formula, Hull seem set to tolerate short-term humiliation for the sake of medium-term consolidation. Rather than completely revamp their squad this summer, they've scrambled around for a few freebies and spent just £3.75m, having seemingly decided that the £60m+ they'll receive over the next three years as a result of their promotion (£32m if they finish bottom this season and £15m in parachute payments over the following two years) will be used to gradually build a squad that will be better equipped to survive when they return in one or two seasons.

 

It's sad that football has come to this - that after waiting over a century to gain admission to the top flight, a prudently-run club feels obliged to effectively volunteer for an immediate departure. Of course, while that may be the thinking in the moneymen's minds, the natural instinct of proud players and managers is to fight against the tyranny of financial reason.

 

And some of those players do have quality. Boaz Myhill, another who's been with the club since its League Two days, is a fine goalkeeper and, along with full-back Sam Ricketts and dominant centre-back Michael Turner, helped give Hull the third best defensive record in the Championship last season. Summer recruit Anthony Gardner will add, um, Premier League experience. As will Bernard Mendy, who, alas, last week marked his debut for the Tigers by living up to his reputation as the French Titus Bramble, conceding two penalties and missing one in a 4-0 friendly defeat by Crewe. Oh Jesus.

 

George Boateng for £1m should prove a more useful acquisition, as should winger Peter Halmosi, who can deliver a decent cross from the left (just don't expect lollipops or mazy dribbles). But to whom will he deliver? Hull are in urgent need of new faces up front. Caleb Folan is strong and direct but probably not the man to spearhead survival. Geovanni could be the answer, though his cameos at Manchester City last season suggest otherwise. Windass, marvel though he is, surely can't continue to defy the years. And Frazier Campbell, last season's top scorer (and chief creator, since Nicky Barmby doesn't cut it any more), has returned to Manchester United, who've rejected Hull's attempt to buy him.

 

That attempt at least shows Hull are not so resigned to their fate that they're refusing to shell out at least a tad more. They also made a £3m offer for Marlon King, which appears to have failed because of the striker's demand for a severance fee from Wigan. So Brown's hunt for a modestly-priced striker continues, his latest target being David Nugent, who looked woefully out of his depth in his few appearances for Portsmouth last season.

 

It seems, then, that some sort of beautiful madness must sweep through the Premier League next season in order for Hull to remain there.

 

IN: Geovanni (Manchester City - free), Bernard Mendy (PSG - free), George Boateng (Middlesbrough -£1m), Tony Warner (Fulham - free), Craig Fagan (Derby - £750,000), Anthony Gardner (Tottenham - loan)

 

OUT: Jay-Jay Okocha (released), David Livermore (released), Henrik Pedersen (Silkeborg - free)

[Kahnee]

Hull are doomed

[Damian_de]

It's opinion, not fact

Yep, very radio 5.

[Cunny]

LIVERPOOL

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no9_liv.html

 

Premier League preview No9: Liverpool

 

Anfield's nearly men won't get any closer to the title this season

 

Paul Doyle

 

August 8, 2008 7:52 AM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 3rd Odds: 6-1

 

Everyone has one: a mate who spends ages in front of the mirror before heading out on Friday evening, dousing himself in deodorant and preening like a wannabe Casanova despite the fact that it's obvious to all that he's not going to pull. He'll return home later that night, alone as always, and, ahem, get a grip of himself. His whole sorry routine is an unwitting tribute to Liverpool in the Premier League.

 

But this time it will be different! It really will!

 

Well, it might be.

 

Certainly Liverpool seem intent on playing more attractively than at any other time under Rafa Benítez. Anyone who doesn't expect Fernando Torres and Robbie Keane to strike up a joyously fruitful partnership is a begrudger or a fool. They are both highly intelligent and hard-working performers whose different skills should prove perfectly complementary.

 

Of course, if they are to sustain a challenge for the title beyond Christmas, Liverpool will have to develop the offensive diversity and unpredictability to turn last season's costly draws against smaller teams into victories. It would have been useful to keep Peter Crouch as an extra option, but the club's finances forbade that and instead the cameo role of lanky frontman who's not very good in the air will have to be entrusted to David Ngog, who does have abundant potential (and speed), even if PSG primarily used him last season as a substitute or a right-midfielder. Liverpool, then, will still find themselves resorting to the sort of improvisation that is beneath Chelsea and Manchester United.

 

But are they really forced to? Could Benítez really not make better use of the money available to him? The case of Gareth Barry suggests he could. Liverpool's pursuit of the wannabe former Villan is puzzling. Presumably the manager doesn't intend to buy him just so he can boast to United and Chelsea that he can afford £18m squad players (when he clearly can't); similarly it seems improbable that he envisages using him as a left-back (that'll be Andrea Dossena's role, surely). Which means Barry will be deployed in midfield alongside Javier Mascherano, with Steven Gerrard edging closer to the right in a 4-2-3-1. The thing is, that will aggravate Liverpool's biggest problem: they will have even less width.

 

Granted, the gifted Ryan Babel can be expected to progress even farther this season (once he returns from the Olympics) and carry a growing threat from the left - even though he seems more suited to a central role - but the right will be rendered even more inadequate. Jermaine Pennant and, in particular, Dirk Kuyt have hitherto offered a partially effective sort of nuisance value but, obviously, not enough to win the Premier League; neither is likely to start regularly if Barry comes (indeed, Pennant may be about be sold) but putting Keane there would be to restrict his interaction with Torres. Gerrard can be very effective out there but lacks the discipline or inclination to actually stay there.

 

The full-backs won't compensate. Alvaro Arbeloa is a tidy defender but he's no raider in the style of Bacary Sagna, Jose Bosingwa or even Wes Brown; Philippe Degen, as you might expect from a freebie, is not up to their class either, though he would offer more going forward than Arbeloa does, albeit at the cost of slack defending. On the left, Dossena is an improvement on Jon-Arne Riise but, again, inferior to Patrice Evra, Gaël Clichy and Ashley Cole.

 

In short, Barry's arrival, while introducing greater thrust and variety through the middle, would spell even more limitations out wide. It's not easy trying to overtake United and Chelsea when you have to sell to buy, but if Liverpool do manage to flog Xabi Alonso for the inflated fee they seek, or if the owners manage to piece together £18m despite the credit crunch and uncertainty over the club's new stadium, wouldn't Benítez be better off buying at least one top class wide man, particularly for the right? Instead of bringing in Barry, who, accomplished though he is, isn't really that much of an upgrade on Alonso anyway.

 

Defensively, at least, Liverpool will again be sound. As hinted above, suggestions that Barry's arrival would mean a switch to 3-5-2 are probably misguided, though that would at least have the merit of showcasing the club's three solid centre-backs. More likely, Benítez will deploy a back four safe in the knowledge that he can't go far wrong regardless of which two he picks from Jamie Carragher, Daniel Agger and Martin Skrtel. Behind them, of course, is Pepe Reina, a quality keeper who has the concentration level required for the least busy custodian in the division: last season Liverpool restricted opponents to just 90 shots on target in the entire league campaign, the meanest rate in the country. They also allowed less crosses than any other team (go on, guess how many - and go out and get some fresh air if you knew it was 653). But this season must be all about attack for Liverpool.

 

If taking a respectable tilt at the title means squashing all the small fry, then actually winning it entails doing something else Liverpool failed to do last season (albeit because of obscene refereeing when Chelsea came to Anfield): namely, beat at least one of the big boys in the league.

 

They'll have a prime early opportunity to do just that in Game 4, when Manchester United will travel to Anfield without Cristiano Ronaldo (and possibly also Wayne Rooney). Victory for the visitors, even another fluky one, would intensify suspicions that this is going to be another fruitless domestic season for Liverpool.

 

IN: Philipp Degen (Borussia Dortmund - free), Andrea Dossena (Udinese - undisclosed), Vincent Lucas Weijl (AZ Alkmaar - undisclosed) Diego Cavalieri (Palmeiras - undisclosed), David Ngog (PSG - £1.4m), Robbie Keane (Tottenham - up to £20.3m)

 

OUT: Peter Crouch (Portsmouth - £11m), Harry Kewell (Galatasary - free), John Arne Riise (Roma - £4m), Anthony Le Tallec (Le Mans - free), Scott Carson (West Brom - £3.25m)

[Hassony]

On the left, Dossena is an improvement on Jon-Arne Riise but, again, inferior to Patrice Evra, Gaël Clichy and Ashley Cole.

 

How can he say that already?

[D.Boon]

On the left, Dossena is an improvement on Jon-Arne Riise but, again, inferior to Patrice Evra, Gaël Clichy and Ashley Cole.

 

How can he say that already?

 

Cos he is a clueless c***.

[Sir Tokyo Sexwale]

last season Liverpool restricted opponents to just 90 shots on target in the entire league campaign

 

[Kahnee]

 

That's the one that stood out for me

 

Oh, and the Crouch bit is b****x