Guardian club by club Premier League previews

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ARSENAL

 

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/08/...ew_no1_ars.html

 

Premier League preview No1: Arsenal

 

Though their first-choice XI will still be able to pass even the best teams to death, injuries to a thin squad could well provoke another collapse

 

Paul Doyle

 

August 4, 2008 7:36 AM

 

guardian.co.uk writers' prediction: 4th Odds: 5-1

 

This time last year many Arsenal fans feared Arsène Wenger had committed a terrible error by relinquishing Thierry Henry. They were wrong. But that hasn't stopped Gooners fretting again this summer - and this time their concern isn't about one radical decision, rather about the whole modus operandi of a manager who's won nothing for three seasons. So are Arsenal in the throes of systemic failure?

 

Answering yes seems alarmist. After all, despite the ruinous injuries that afflicted key players last season (Eduardo, Robin van Persie, Tomas Rosicky, Bacary Sagna and, um, Johann Djourou) they finished just four points behind the champions. They could have won the Champions League but for dubious penalty awards in both legs of the quarter-final against Liverpool. And in terms of their performances, they were regularly on snogging terms with perfection.

 

But the climax never came; and fate alone didn't foil them. Their misfortune was aggravated by some of Wenger's own decisions: his faith in Emmanuel Eboué (but not at right-back, even after Sagna got injured); his reluctance to truly trust Theo Walcott; his appointment of William Gallas as captain; and, perhaps most of all, his dogmatic refusal to build a bigger, better squad (it was only last September that Arsenal claimed £70m was available for the manager to spend on players if he so wished).

 

Even more worryingly for Arsenal fans, the club not only refrained from forking out for several new signings this summer, but have also failed to hold on to some key players. They've lost Mathieu Flamini, Alexander Hleb ... and possibly ground on their rivals, what with Chelsea continuing to go galactico and Liverpool splurging around £20m on a single player for the third time in a year (Robbie Keane following Fernando Torres and Javier Mascherano). Wenger's most expensive ever recruit remains Sylvain Wiltord, who cost £13m eight years ago (José Antonio Reyes didn't cost that much because various add-on clauses were never triggered).

 

In short, though Arsenal's first-choice XI will still be able to pass even the very best teams to death - they scored more goals than anyone else in the last 15 minutes of matches last season because opponents were so tired chasing them - the shallowness of their squad means a recurrence of last season's savage spate of injuries could well provoke another collapse.

 

Wenger has said he only needs to buy one more player before the season starts for his squad to be complete. The indications are he means a replacement for Flamini, which is hardly surprising given Gilberto and Lassana Diarra have also left. Flamini's No16 shirt has been given to Aaron Ramsey but it's unlikely the inventive 17-year-old is expected to slot straight into the role of holding midfielder; though, being so precocious, he will certainly feature in the first-team throughout the season. Abou Diaby lacks the requisite dynamism or poise to serve as more than a sub-adequate stop-gap. Denilson seems to have stagnated. Alexandre Song had an excellent African Cup of Nations in the Cameroonian midfield but doesn't seem to have convinced Wenger he can do it on a consistent basis. Indeed, he has been used as a makeshift centre-back in his recent club appearances. So none of the current options appears ideal. A reliable sidekick for Fábregas would be most welcome.

 

But the area where Arsenal are lightest is defence. The starting four are fine: Bacary Sagna is the best right-back in the league and Gaël Clichy is on a par with Patrice Evra. But the differential between them and their deputies is huge. Cover for Kolo Toure and Gallas is equally threadbare. Fielding Djourou or Philippe Senderos might suffice at home to Hull, but against one of the big boys they'd be a gap waiting to be exploited. Again, it's difficult to envisage Arsenal emerging from a full season ahead of Chelsea, in particular.

 

Mind you, it's even more difficult to imagine them slipping out of the top four, and if we turn to their positives, we may even conclude that they're more likely to move up than down. For a start, as Wenger and the players repeatedly insist, they are a season older and a season wiser. They should be more composed, and more ruthless. We're unlikely, for example, to see a reprise of the Birmingham fiasco, when Emmanuel Adebayor spurned a match-clinching goal by refusing to pass to Nicklas Bendtner, and Gallas infamously imitated a thwarted teenager sulking in his bedroom to a My Chemical Romance soundtrack.

 

Secondly, they still have immense quality, particularly as the precious (in both senses of the word) Adebayor appears to be staying. Flamini may not yet have been replaced, but Hleb has: Samir Nasri will more than compensate for his departure. Yes, he will take time to adapt to the Premier League and even at Marseille, where he was well established, inconsistent spells betrayed his youth. But this gem of a player requires a lot less polishing than other prospects Wenger has previously signed and soon he will be up to speed; already he can carry the ball as well as Hleb and he offers the same vision and technique that enables Cesc Fábregas to spot and deliver killer passes quickly. He also shares Fábregas's mental maturity. The one concession Wenger will make to his inexperience in England is to initially deploy him wide rather than in the middle.

 

Elsewhere, Wenger has emphatically insisted he doesn't need to bolster his strikeforce. He should be right, but it's a bold claim given Eduardo's condition and Van Persie's brittleness and the fact is that Bendtner is too gauche to thrive at Arsenal and Carlos Vela may only be ready for League Cup action.

 

And then there's the case of Walcott. So far in pre-season he has been used wide on the right, which makes sense insofar as he is undoubtedly better there than Eboué and will surely send in enough crosses for Arsenal to repeat their feat of last season, when they scored more from crosses than any other team apart from Tottenham. However, Wenger must also be tempted to revert to a 4-4-2, at least for some games, and stick Walcott, rather than Van Persie, through the middle with instructions to use his phenomenal speed in the way Nicolas Anelka once did.

 

A good start helped Arsenal build confidence last season and a benign fixture list should again enable them get into their stride this term. Their first six matches are against West Brom (H), Fulham (A), Newcastle (H), Blackburn (A), Bolton (A) and Hull (H). A powerful opening would reinforce the steel forged by the disappointing end to the last campaign.

 

Overall, then, you can see why Wenger refuses to abandon his faith in his methods, even if it's starting to feel increasingly quixotic. If practice backs up his theories and Arsenal win the league it would, bearing in mind how their rivals have been flexing their financial muscle, be the manager's greatest achievement to date.

 

IN: Aaron Ramsey (Cardiff - £5m), Samir Nasri (Marseille - £11m), Amaury Bischoff (Werder Bremen - undisclosed)

 

OUT: Mathieu Flamini (Milan - free), Jens Lehmann (Stuttgart - free), Alexander Hleb (Barcelona - £12m), Gilberto Silva (Panathinaikos - £1m), Kerrea Gilbert (Leicester - loan)

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