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GEEK Alert! - The Run in? - ManU have no easier a Home run in than us...

Case

By Case
in Liverpool FC

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Case

Case

Posted
Posted

Did a little experiment earlier on ....

 

Looking at the present League table, and the remaining fixtures of the top five...

I assigned a 'weight' of the current league position of each team and found that ...

 

Man Utd's home fixtures gave a difficulty total of 83, ours was 85, Villa's 82 and Chelsea 91 - No BIG difference, and given how shocking Chelsea's home form is that's pretty encouraging The worrying thing is that Arsenal's home total is 101 - meaning they're playing ALL of their home games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, with the exception of Chelsea at the Emirates in early May, and West Ham at the end of this month. Good news that we're six points clear of them, I think...

 

Away from home, Chelsea (76) and Arsenal (78) have much the hardest run in. Us and Villa are both on 85, but Utd.. have an away run in 'difficulty' of 101, significantly easier than anyone else, their hardest games being against Wigan and West Ham away ...

 

Ok, all this is based on current positions, and these will obviously change as the season progresses, but it does give some indication of the challenge we have ahead of us.

 

Netting off home AND away 'difficulty' against Man Utd.... Arsenal are 5 difficulty points worse off, we're 14, Villa and Chelsea both 17.

 

Nuggets of hope? - As if we didn't already know... Our last four games are (potentially) significantly easier than anyone else's (and especially Arsenal who have both Chelsea at home and Utd away to play in their last three). IF we can stay within 3/4 points of United towards the end of April, it COULD be on, but we can't be any more than this...

 

Problem is that our NEXT four games are liderally TWICE as difficult as Utd's (us 33 difficulty, Utd's 61). We can't hope to be within 4 points at the end of the season if we're 8 or 9 point off by mid February. We MUST beat Chelsea and City at home (both of whom will come to 'play') and Wigan and Pompey away (tricky ties). United WILL take 12 points from their next four (West Brom, West Ham away, Everton, Fulham at home)...

beejay

beejay

Posted
Posted
Did a little experiment earlier on ....

 

Looking at the present League table, and the remaining fixtures of the top five...

I assigned a 'weight' of the current league position of each team and found that ...

 

Man Utd's home fixtures gave a difficulty total of 83, ours was 85, Villa's 82 and Chelsea 91 - No BIG difference, and given how shocking Chelsea's home form is that's pretty encouraging The worrying thing is that Arsenal's home total is 101 - meaning they're playing ALL of their home games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, with the exception of Chelsea at the Emirates in early May, and West Ham at the end of this month. Good news that we're six points clear of them, I think...

 

Away from home, Chelsea (76) and Arsenal (78) have much the hardest run in. Us and Villa are both on 85, but Utd.. have an away run in 'difficulty' of 101, significantly easier than anyone else, their hardest games being against Wigan and West Ham away ...

 

Ok, all this is based on current positions, and these will obviously change as the season progresses, but it does give some indication of the challenge we have ahead of us.

 

Netting off home AND away 'difficulty' against Man Utd.... Arsenal are 5 difficulty points worse off, we're 14, Villa and Chelsea both 17.

 

Nuggets of hope? - As if we didn't already know... Our last four games are (potentially) significantly easier than anyone else's (and especially Arsenal who have both Chelsea at home and Utd away to play in their last three). IF we can stay within 3/4 points of United towards the end of April, it COULD be on, but we can't be any more than this...

 

Problem is that our NEXT four games are liderally TWICE as difficult as Utd's (us 33 difficulty, Utd's 61). We can't hope to be within 4 points at the end of the season if we're 8 or 9 point off by mid February. We MUST beat Chelsea and City at home (both of whom will come to 'play') and Wigan and Pompey away (tricky ties). United WILL take 12 points from their next four (West Brom, West Ham away, Everton, Fulham at home)...

 

If Arsenal have such an easy home run to come doesn't that mean their away games are hard? Much rather have easier away games and the tougher ones at home personally

Hassony

Hassony

Posted
Posted

Feck me, Kaizer would have been proud of that effort!

 

I have had a feeling for a couple of weeks now that we will come back and win it over the last 4-5 games of the season!

richwilks

richwilks

Posted
Posted

We usually hit a good speel starting Feb and we need to make sure that happens.

 

If we can go the last 3 months in top form and get Gerrard and Torres both on top of their game then we should be in the mix come May.

 

My worry is that we have played pretty poorly all season and had been scraping wins in some fixtures. Those hard fought victories seem to have become a thing of the past and they are turning into draws. We need to start winning regularly or it's another trophyless season.

Case

Case

Posted
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Posted
If Arsenal have such an easy home run to come doesn't that mean their away games are hard? Much rather have easier away games and the tougher ones at home personally

 

Yes, beejay - Our Home and Away 'difficulty' is the same - 85. Arsenal's fluctuates badly - Easy home (101), very difficult away 78.

 

Like Sean says - We need to go on that run right NOW. We really need a performance against Wigan, then to destroy Chelsea with passion and committment. IF we can, then we could stay in touch for the remainder.

 

In theory, ManU could also struggle at home against Everton. Screetch will be back in midfield for the blues****, too - it COULD be a minor chink of light - but really, it's up to us now.

usualsuspect

usualsuspect

Posted
Posted

I don't think your model really works as mid-table teams are likely to offer less of a battle than relegation threatened teams, particularly in the last 5-8 games. Also it assumes we generally pummel lower teams which is virtually the opposite going by season's experience.

budgie

budgie

Posted
Posted
I think we will drop points against Wigan (might even lose), then spank chelsea and go on to win our next 10 games

 

 

I actually think we might be getting Wigan at a good time. They have been on a good run which that quality of a team can only last so long and likely to sell 1-2 of their better players before we play them.

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