GEEK Alert! - The Run in? - ManU have no easier a Home run in than us...

Case · January 20, 2009

Did a little experiment earlier on ....

Looking at the present League table, and the remaining fixtures of the top five...

I assigned a 'weight' of the current league position of each team and found that ...

Man Utd's home fixtures gave a difficulty total of 83, ours was 85, Villa's 82 and Chelsea 91 - No BIG difference, and given how shocking Chelsea's home form is that's pretty encouraging The worrying thing is that Arsenal's home total is 101 - meaning they're playing ALL of their home games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, with the exception of Chelsea at the Emirates in early May, and West Ham at the end of this month. Good news that we're six points clear of them, I think...

Away from home, Chelsea (76) and Arsenal (78) have much the hardest run in. Us and Villa are both on 85, but Utd.. have an away run in 'difficulty' of 101, significantly easier than anyone else, their hardest games being against Wigan and West Ham away ...

Ok, all this is based on current positions, and these will obviously change as the season progresses, but it does give some indication of the challenge we have ahead of us.

Netting off home AND away 'difficulty' against Man Utd.... Arsenal are 5 difficulty points worse off, we're 14, Villa and Chelsea both 17.

Nuggets of hope? - As if we didn't already know... Our last four games are (potentially) significantly easier than anyone else's (and especially Arsenal who have both Chelsea at home and Utd away to play in their last three). IF we can stay within 3/4 points of United towards the end of April, it COULD be on, but we can't be any more than this...

Problem is that our NEXT four games are liderally TWICE as difficult as Utd's (us 33 difficulty, Utd's 61). We can't hope to be within 4 points at the end of the season if we're 8 or 9 point off by mid February. We MUST beat Chelsea and City at home (both of whom will come to 'play') and Wigan and Pompey away (tricky ties). United WILL take 12 points from their next four (West Brom, West Ham away, Everton, Fulham at home)...

beejay · January 20, 2009

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