Might be the easiest based on perceived quality of opposition, but i never saw it as 3pts for us, given the location and environment.
We've really got to win our home games, which is fine except for Madrid. That game is pretty critical for us.
Then hope we can do something in some tricky aways as you highlight.
When I saw the draw my expectation was that we would not make top 8 and have to go to a play-off.