Basically the way it is priced is as if all players could start. So if Ings doesnt start and somebody else scores before he gets on the pitch, you get your money back. Same if Ings didnt get in the 18. If salah was a fitness doubt, he'd still be liverpool's shortest priced player to score 1st I'd argue that Mane is a more likely scorer than Ings in any case and so the price is wrong, but it's not because of there being a view on Ings being more likely to start than Mane, or vice versa. They may think that if Ings plays he'd be at CF.