Odds

[Sir Tokyo Sexwale]

Glams - 9/1 for the Treble

Chels - 28/1 for the Quadruple

 

Chelsea's odds I can understand, but the Mancs 9s seem short (I know all the betting arguments etc etc)

 

I presume it's a combination of each of their individual odds (league, FAC, EC)? But bookies don't always work that way - at least they didn't used to, I remember when you could get say 10s for a 1st goalscorer & 3s on a team to win, but they wouldn't let you make a double of it & instead offered their own double odds, at significantly reduced favour

[Cobs]

as ever it's in part driven by the amount of money already placed on the bet but

 

Utd are still favourites for the League, are racing certainties to make the cup final and achieved the best result possible by losing to roma

 

9-1 seems fair enough to me

 

Chelsea odds are higher cos no-one's ever done a quad before, they're still 2nd in the league, have a tricky cup semi final and mainly cos Liverpool are in their half of the CL draw

 

[John am Rhein]

Man U should be longer than 9/1

 

They should be roughly 7/1 for the European Cup - 1 in 8 chance. The implication that they've got about an 80% (odds would be 4/1 on FFS!) chance of winning the League/Cup double is way off the mark.

 

Based on current Betfair odds, they ought to be about 16/1 for the treble.

[floyd]

Why are Chelsea 6/1 to win Champs League and Valencia 7/1, but to go through tonight Valencia are favourites.

And the Mancs second favs at 5/1? If they do through, Bayern or AC, at 13/2 and 15/1 respectively are far better odds on far better teams.

Still, all irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

[John am Rhein]

Why are Chelsea 6/1 to win Champs League and Valencia 7/1, but to go through tonight Valencia are favourites.

 

Well, it could be considered that Chelsea are the better side and therefore more likely to win the European Cup, but Valencia have the advantage of a 1-1 from Stamford Bridge (not as good as losing 2-1, obviously ) so they are more likely to win this particular tie.

 

The implication would be that IF Chelsea went through they'd have a good chance to be European Champions, whereas Valencia would still be outsiders.

 

Not saying I actually agree with that, mind.

[floyd]

Well, it could be considered that Chelsea are the better side and therefore more likely to win the European Cup, but Valencia have the advantage of a 1-1 from Stamford Bridge (not as good as losing 2-1, obviously ) so they are more likely to win this particular tie.

 

The implication would be that IF Chelsea went through they'd have a good chance to be European Champions, whereas Valencia would still be outsiders.

 

Not saying I actually agree with that, mind.

 

Bet of the day

 

0-0, both matches

[Stevie H]

weird coming past a bookies this morning and seeing us as 3-1 favourites to win the CL.

[floyd]

weird coming past a bookies this morning and seeing us as 3-1 favourites to win the CL.

seeing as out of the last 3 seasons we have the best record out of the rest of the "big 4",it's no surprise that the bookies might of woken up, but looking at the rest of the odds, they seem to be still stuck thinking, the Mancs know what to do in Europe

[Sir Tokyo Sexwale]

So how do the odds tally? Is a 3 time 2/1 bet effectively an 8/1 bet (2 x 2 x 2) or 14/1 ($1 wins $2 + stake onto the 2nd bet; $3 @ 2/1 = $6 + plus stake $1; $7 @ 2/1 = $14)?

 

Bill Hill quotes the Mancs at 7/2 for the EC (Chels 5)

4/11 for the League (Chels 2/1)

Evs for the FAc (Chels 5/4)

 

What do those stack up as?

[Stevie H]

So how do the odds tally? Is a 3 time 2/1 bet effectively an 8/1 bet (2 x 2 x 2) or 14/1 ($1 wins $2 + stake onto the 2nd bet; $3 @ 2/1 = $6 + plus stake $1; $7 @ 2/1 = $14)?

 

Bill Hill quotes the Mancs at 7/2 for the EC (Chels 5)

4/11 for the League (Chels 2/1)

Evs for the FAc (Chels 5/4)

 

What do those stack up as?

what the hell are you doing online at 6.30am you weirdo.

[Sir Tokyo Sexwale]

I have a child. And too much work. I dream of spreadsheets

[Stevie H]

my sympathy mate. and you didn't even get a bank holiday yesterday.

[Sir Tokyo Sexwale]

we've had 3 this year though. I was in the office for the first 2....oh - and snow all weekend

[John am Rhein]

So how do the odds tally? Is a 3 time 2/1 bet effectively an 8/1 bet (2 x 2 x 2) or 14/1 ($1 wins $2 + stake onto the 2nd bet; $3 @ 2/1 = $6 + plus stake $1; $7 @ 2/1 = $14)?

 

Bill Hill quotes the Mancs at 7/2 for the EC (Chels 5)

4/11 for the League (Chels 2/1)

Evs for the FAc (Chels 5/4)

 

What do those stack up as?

 

IMO, it's easier to work with the probabilities impled by the odds.

 

If the odds are 2/1 then that's a probability of 1/3 (0.333) or more generally if the odds are A/B then that's a probablility of B/(A+B). Note that these 'probabilities' won't actually add up to 1.0 so, depending on what you're doing with them, you might need to adjust them by dividing each one by the total.

[Sir Tokyo Sexwale]

so in English - is 9/1 a good or s**** bet?

 

Academic anyway, as there's no feckin way I'd ever back them. I'd sooner not win money than have it tainted by those c****

[sutty]

The mancs are (were before Sat) 1/8 to win the league.

 

So really they are as near as damnit 9s to win the CL and the FA cup. Given that they are pretty much in the final of the FA Cup you are just doubling them winning the champions league with them winning the FA Cup.

 

Its still a pants bet though. Just building in more potential for losing for not much extra reward

[John am Rhein]

so in English - is 9/1 a good or s**** bet?

 

s***

 

As I said earlier, it should be more like 16/1.

 

 

The mancs are (were before Sat) 1/8 to win the league.

 

Now 4/11 according to Macca. It boils down to roughly 69% Man U, 31% Chelsea.

[sutty]

I was so tempted to lay the mancs at 1-8.

 

Wish I had now.

[John am Rhein]

Here's a question for any betting experts. Suppose you wanted to lay Man U for the treble at 9/1. How would you actually do this on Betfair (say)? AFAIK they don't offer combination bets.

 

Glams - 9/1 for the Treble

 

Were these odds still available after Portsmouth-Man U?

[sutty]

You couldn't do it on betfair unless a market was created especially for it.

[John am Rhein]

But is there some way you could lay bets in all 3 markets: Premier League title, FA Cup winner and European Cup winner and map out a stretegy such that as soon as one of the markets closed (or at least as soon as Man U dropped out of them, hopefully tonight in the case of the EC) you immediately placed/laid bets in the remaining markets such that your risk was controlled?

[sutty]

Probably there is a way of doing it, however you are probably going to find that even optimally balanced you are going to be offering greater than 9-1.

[Tyler]

have backed roma and valencia to both win tonight

 

odds about 15/1

[John am Rhein]

Probably there is a way of doing it, however you are probably going to find that even optimally balanced you are going to be offering greater than 9-1.

 

Exactly. You get some mug to take 9/1 and then lay it off on Betfair at 16/1.

[sutty]

Exactly. You get some mug to take 9/1 and then lay it off on Betfair at 16/1.

 

You'd need to back it at 16s..

 

Just in case you are thinking of doing it