A Tip for Shares Investment

Flight · October 30, 2009

I saw in another thread that one or two folks have shares in Activision Blizzard. I'd recommend selling them (maybe now, maybe better in a month or so) and getting on another games company, Square Enix.

A large slice of ABs profits come from Blizzard via World of Warcraft. For the first time in the coming year WoW is going to face competition from other quality MMOs. Medium term (1-2 years) Blizzard will see big hits with Diablo 3 and Starcraft 2. But I expect to see a slump in their form over the next 12 months.

Why Square Enix ? SE release two massive products in the next 12 months, which I am predicting will be massive hits. Final Fantasy XIII is launching on consoles - I'll be surprised if it isn't the most profitable console game ever. They are also launching FFXIV, which is an MMO and this is what I am predicting will be the real money maker. It's going to be massively successful. You'll know Blizzard are worried when they bring forward the next WoW expansion, Cataclysm, from next November to some time mid year.

The above is totally my guesswork, but the activity of Kotick and other AB directors backs up the likely scenario :

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=66197

Sell AB, buy SE. Depending on time scales (ie how long after FFXIV SC2 and D3 look like launching) get back on AB prior to SC2 and D3 launching.

Edited October 30, 2009 by Flight

matty · October 30, 2009

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