Medialens

Des · October 19, 2006

A brilliant, brilliant article that tears apart any notion of the so-called "independent" "free press" in this country...

October 18, 2006

MEDIA ALERT: DEMOCRACY AND DEBATE - KILLING IRAQ

The Lancet Reports 655,000 Excess Iraqi Deaths As A Consequence Of The Invasion

How do we judge the health of a free society? How do we distinguish the appearance of democracy from the reality?

There are no hard and fast rules, no scientific methodologies. But as a rule of thumb it is safe to suggest that we can learn much from a society's willingness to address the humanitarian crimes for which it is responsible.

In a totalitarian society, we would expect such a discussion to be absent in any meaningful sense. But in a genuinely free society, we would expect a thorough, detailed and unrestrained debate. Although this second expectation is itself based on an important assumption: namely, that individual freedom implies moral concern, a sense of responsibility for the suffering of others. We assume that to be a free human being means, also, to be free from the bonds of selfishness and indifference.

October 11 and 12 were significant dates, then, for anyone seeking to establish something of the truth of our own society. On October 11 news organisations began reporting the results of an article published by the Lancet medical journal: 'Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey.' The study was led by Gilbert Burnham of the prestigious Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore. The survey itself was conducted by eight Iraqi doctors led by Riyadh Lafta of Al Mustansiriya University, Baghdad. The doctors collected data from 1,849 households comprising 12,801 individuals in 47 population clusters across Iraq. The survey findings were staggering:

"We estimate that, as a consequence of the coalition invasion of March 18, 2003, about 655 000 Iraqis have died above the number that would be expected in a non-conflict situation, which is equivalent to about 2·5% of the population in the study area. About 601 000 of these excess deaths were due to violent causes. Our estimate of the post-invasion crude mortality rate represents a doubling of the baseline mortality rate, which... constitutes a humanitarian emergency." (Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, Les Roberts, 'Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey,' http://www.thelancet.com/webfiles/images/

journals/lancet/s0140673606694919.pdf)

The scientists estimate that the most probable number of excess deaths is 654,965. They also estimate, with 95 per cent certainty, that the actual number lies between 392,979 and 942,636.

It is important to note that the standard figure for Iraqi deaths offered by the mainstream media is that supplied by Iraq Body Count (IBC). At time of writing, the "maximum" IBC figure stands at 48,783. There has long been great confusion among journalists about exactly what this figure represents. Many believe it describes the maximum possible total of Iraqi dead, or of all Iraqi civilians killed. In fact it is the figure solely for Iraqi civilian victims of violence as reported by at least two (mostly Western) media as selected by IBC for use in their study.

So although the latest Lancet study measures a much broader range of deaths, the difference is nevertheless enormous, particularly for the many journalists who assume the studies measure much the same thing. Likewise, the Lancet figures must strike the public as astonishingly high given that they have been repeatedly reminded of IBC's 48,000 death toll and George Bush's 30,000 figure.

As we will see, the Lancet's latest study has inherent credibility. The reasons were explained in a rare US press editorial on the matter in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Missouri) on October 15:

"Here is one of the world's most respected medical journals publishing a peer-reviewed study by epidemiologists backed by Johns Hopkins University's School of Public Health, part of one of the world's most respected medical schools." ('Methodology in madness,' October 15, 2006)

In sum, a free press in a free society would simply +have+ to investigate this study in depth, if only to resolve the confusion of a bemused and concerned public in response to an inherently credible report.

The Front Pages

In the event, the story failed to appear on the front pages of most newspapers on October 12. We collected a pile of dailies that day and noted the following front pages:

Daily Mirror: 'Terror in the tower' and 'Sex swap Jacko? - Showbiz exclusive.'

The Daily Telegraph: 'The tagged prisoners freed to kill.'

The Daily Mail: 'Britain's taxes soaring' and 'But landlord Hamza is doing very nicely out of this country.'

The Times: 'Race quotas "needed to end divide in schools",' and '10/11 - New York plane hits building.' (Six news stories were also briefly summarised linking to pages inside the paper: 'Lib Dem donor was fraudulent,' 'Poland's future,' 'Visa splits in two,' 'Richest woman,' 'Libel victory,' and 'Disappearing act.')

Daily Express: 'Oh no not again - Plane hits New York tower block.'

The Daily Star: 'My BB date rape hell.'

The Sun: 'Apauling.' [relating to an England football match]

The Financial Times: 'Visa bows to pressure and unveils IPO move.'

Only the Independent and Guardian made the report their front page lead stories:

The Independent: '655,000 the toll of war in Iraq.'

The Guardian: 'One in 40 Iraqis killed since invasion.'

A LexisNexis database search (October 18) found that the words 'Jack Straw' and 'veil' have been mentioned in 348 articles over the last week. The words 'Madonna' and 'adoption' have been mentioned in 219 articles. The words 'Iraq' and 'Lancet' have been mentioned in 44 articles. The words 'Lancet' and '655,000' have been mentioned in eight national newspaper articles.

The Times devoted a third of a page to the Lancet story on page 45. The Daily Mail had three-quarters of a page on page 2. The Daily Express had a two-inch wide column on page 6 dwarfed by the adjacent story: '"Ageist" birthday cards banned from the office.' The Daily Telegraph had 422 words on page 5. The Financial Times had 609 words on page 7. Of these newspapers, only one has since published any follow up reporting or commentary - 35 words in the Financial Times as part of a round-up of the week's events on October 14.

The Observer devoted 43 words in a single sentence in a comment piece by Mary Riddell (October 15) and a single sentence in a news piece on page 8. The Independent on Sunday referred to the story in one sceptical paragraph in a comment piece by John Rentoul on page 40 and in one sentence of an article by Patrick Cockburn (October 15).

The Daily Mirror and Daily Star have made no mention of the report at all.

The Independent covered the story on October 12 in a news piece, an editorial, and in a brief examination of how Lancet editor Richard Horton "has turned a once-staid academic journal into a publication at the centre of a string of controversies". (Ben Russell, '"Lancet" back at centre of controversy,' The Independent, October 12, 2006) The Independent has since mentioned the story in two sentences on October 13 and October 18.

The Guardian gave 930 words to the story on October 12 in a news piece and 214 words in a brief explanation of the methodology behind the study. The paper also published a comment piece defending the report by Lancet editor, Richard Horton. Since then, there has been Ben Rooney's 200-word round-up of web-based debate on the story (October 13) and a single sentence in an article by Simon Tisdall (October 17). The Guardian also mentioned the study in an October 12 leader - in a single sentence. Remarkably this was an aside in a piece focusing on the "chaotic travesty" of Saddam Hussein's trial:

"Judicial procedure and decorum may seem irrelevant in a country that is reeling under seemingly unstoppable sectarian violence. Even if the human toll since March 2003 is less than the horrific, if contentious, new estimate of 655,000, Iraq seems to be bleeding to death and falling apart. Still, when Saddam was captured in December 2004, trying him was seen..." (Leader, 'Trials and errors,' The Guardian, October 12, 2006)

With the evidence of our own vast crimes before their eyes, that was all the Guardian editors had to say. Instead, the focus of their concluding paragraph was elsewhere:

"The old tyrant may be getting a far better deal than anything that existed when he was in charge. But that is not saying much. And it is not nearly good enough."

So much for the progressive credentials of the country's "leading liberal newspaper".

Redwire · October 19, 2006

This post is not viewable to guests.

You can sign in to your account at the login page here