It's stats time

[Sir Tokyo Sexwale]

The idea that upsets are more likely in FA Cup finals than they would be if the two teams met in the league is a pervasive but romantic fallacy.

In the last 30 years there have been 25 all-top division FA Cup finals. On average, six league places separated the teams - which, as it happens, is the difference between this season's finalists, Liverpool and West Ham United.

 

The team with the better league finish lifted the trophy 16 times out of 25 - 64% of the total. And that is exactly what most professional odds-compilers would have predicted if they had examined the league records of the various teams.

 

The probability of Liverpool beating West Ham tomorrow is even higher - around 75% - because they are separated by an unusually large number of points, 27. The closest parallel from previous seasons is the 2003 final, when Arsenal beat Southampton who had finished six places and 26 points below them.

There are, however, fewer goals in FA Cup finals than there have been in ordinary league fixtures. In the last 30 years there has been an average of 2.1 goals in FA Cup finals, compared with 2.6 goals in Premiership and Football League fixtures.

 

In theory, the small number of goals should have helped the underdogs, because it can be proved mathematically that the fewer goals there are in a game the more likely it is that the inferior team will score most of them.

 

Think of all the great FA Cup final upsets of modern times: Everton beating Manchester United in 1995, Wimbledon beating Liverpool in 1988, West Ham beating Arsenal in 1980, Southampton beating Manchester United in 1976 and Sunderland beating Leeds United in 1973. All of them came by the same scoreline: 1-0.

 

In practice, though, the best team did not win the FA Cup final any less often than they should have done. It is just that because there were so few goals it sometimes took them longer than might have been expected to establish their superiority: 10 of the last 30 FA Cup finals (or 33%) went to extra-time.

That Sam-I-am, that Sam-I-am, I do not like that Sam-I-am

 

Those kind people at Blue Square have agreed to stump up £200 for our resident tipster, James Dart, to wager until the end of the season in the hope he'll turn up a few winners and earn the price of a bumper night for the Guardian Unlimited sports desk on the West End tiles.

 

Sadly, given that this is the final weekend of our challenge and our account grimly tells us there's only £110.88 in the coffers, it's probably time we forgot about that string quartet on the Thames. Still, it's FA Cup final weekend, so perhaps we can plug into some of that oft-referred romance for a death-or-glory flourishing finish.

 

 

Liverpool to beat West Ham in the FA Cup final 2-0: £40 at 6-1

Of course anything can happen in the Cup and many people think West Ham's name is on it this year, but Rafa Benítez's men must surely be on course to lift the famous trophy for the seventh time. Thirty-three clean sheets this season, 11 successive victories coming into this game, no defeats to the Hammers since 1999; the arguments for backing them clearly outweigh those for opposing them. Until their end-of-season burst, a shortage of goals could have been pinpointed as a weakness, but they now look to have the firepower which can take advantage of a West Ham side who will play an open game.

 

Harry Kewell to be FA Cup final man of the match: £15 at 14-1 and John Arne Riise to be FA Cup final man of the match: £15 at 25-1

Unsurprisingly, the Merseysiders' Captain Fantastic looks to be the best shout to land this prize, but not at the meagre 7-2 on offer with Blue Square. Instead, look elsewhere for potential value in Harry Kewell (14-1) and John Arne Riise (25-1): the former has really found his form as the season has wound on, while the potential goalscoring threat posed by Riise (as seen in the semi-final win over Chelsea) rates him worth a punt on as well.

 

Cheltenham to beat Wycombe in League Two play-off semi-final, first leg: £40 at 2-1

The Robins are a big price for this trip to Adams Park, following the two teams' contrasting finishes to the regular season. While the off-field situation for Wycombe has been particularly unfortunate (manager John Gorman took a break to deal with the trauma of his wife's death), they ended the campaign with seven defeats in nine games. Cheltenham, in comparison, have enjoyed a surging run of form which saw them beaten just three times in their last 16 games, and capped their season with a 5-0 thumping of Mansfield on their own turf.

 

All prices with Blue Square

 

· Two lucky readers can win the opportunity to chaperone us on the night, while you can claim a free £25 bet with Blue Square. To enter, and claim your free bet at the same time, simply register with Blue Square and place a win single of at least £10 (or currency equivalent). Your account will then be credited with a £25 betting token (value of which is not included in bet returns, expiring after one month). The offer is limited to one per person.

I will not eat them with a mouse, I will not eat them in a house

 

At 5-2 to win the FA Cup and 5-1 to secure the prize in 90 minutes, West Ham are the biggest-priced team to contest an all-Premiership final. But despite the fancy odds on offer, there seems little value in backing the Hammers to claim the trophy they last won in 1980.

 

However, for those of us not willing to take the 1-3 (Stan James) about Liverpool lifting the Cup for a seventh time - unlike one William Hill punter who has gambled £84,000 at those odds on Rafa Benítez's team - or the 4-6 (Totesport) about them winning in 90 minutes, then the advice is to split your stakes on a 1-0 and 2-0 Reds victory at odds of 6-1 and 13-2 respectively (the combined odds are just over 5-2) with Coral.

 

Liverpool were quoted at 9-1 with most bookmakers when the draw for the third round was made and their form in the FA Cup has been impressive. They were second favourites to knock out Manchester United in the fifth round and Chelsea in the semi-final but did so without the cup-tied Robbie Fowler, who is obviously again unavailable.

Since losing to Arsenal in mid-March, Liverpool have won 11 successive games, including a 2-1 victory at Upton Park and are justifiably odds-on to win at the Millennium Stadium tomorrow.

 

West Ham, 28-1 shots in January, have not defeated Liverpool in any competition since 1999 and have been "doubled" by the Merseysiders in the Premiership this season. In fact all of the top three teams in the Premiership have beaten Alan Pardew's side both home and away this term, giving Hammers supporters and backers little confidence going into the match. Likewise their form (four wins in their last nine matches) has been too sketchy over the final months of the season to suggest they are ready to compete with arguably the most improved team in England - Liverpool have amassed 24 more points this season than last.

 

Incredibly, Liverpool have managed 33 clean sheets this season and can be backed at evens with Blue Square to achieve a 34th. West Ham have failed to score in 10 matches this season.

 

Goals are usually at a premium in FA Cup finals with just two of the last 10 producing more than two, and one of those was Manchester United's 3-0 defeat of the Championship side Millwall. So VC Bet's offer of 4-7 about less than three goals looks a solid option for those playing the total goals market.

 

Of the myriad special bets on offer from the fixed-odds bookmakers, the one that appeals most is the BBC Man of the Match award market. Totesport offers 13-2 on Steven Gerrard getting the nod from the Match of the Day pundits and, given that the Professional Footballers' Association player of the year is the club's top scorer this season with 20 goals, the Liverpool captain will be an obvious choice should the Reds win.

 

The spread betting firm Sporting Index also offers a market based on Gerrard. Dubbed "Stevie Wonder", it awards 25 points for each goal Gerrard scores with a 25 point bonus if he wins the Man of the Match trophy. The spread is 15-17, meaning if you buy at 17 and Gerrard scores once and if the BBC gives him the award, you win 33 times your stake.

 

Not in the rain, not on a train...