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Coronavirus

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10 minutes ago, psl said:

Imagine how much his hotels and casinos are losing.

That’s why he wants a corporate slush fund built into the trillion dollar plus financial relief bill going through both houses. His administration can dispense that part of it as they see fit without any supervision of congress i.e. his failing resorts and golf clubs will make more money than they ever have done.

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3 hours ago, psl said:

This 1% mortality rate thing is bollovls isn't it. I don't know how they have reached such a figure based on the stats of deaths to cases, unless we are working on the basis that loads have it and haven't been tested.

There is a difference between mortality rate and death rate. Mortality rate is %of the whole population whereas death rate is death/non death result of infection. 

So no, you can't work out the mortality rate purely on death/cases as that misses infection rate and the effect on death rate given by level of treatment. Amongst other things. 

At least that's what I read somewhere the other day. But it seems the two terms are used interchangeably which is very confusing. 

 

Edited by Billy Talbot

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5 minutes ago, Billy Talbot said:

There is a difference between mortality rate and death rate. Mortality rate is %of the whole population whereas death rate is death/non death result of infection. 

So no, you can't work out the mortality rate purely on death/cases as that misses infection rate and the effect on death rate given by level of treatment. Amongst other things. 

At least that's what I read somewhere the other day. But it seems the two terms are used interchangeably which is very confusing. 

 

Thanks. I think though that when we have been told a mortality rate of 1% is expected, this is of those infected. I hope it's not 1% of the population!

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Quote

 

Up to 5,000 students will be allowed to return to Liberty University’s campus after school officials confirmed the conservative Christian school based in Lynchburg, Virginia, will reopen this week.

Liberty’s president, Jerry Falwell Jr, defied nationwide calls for mandatory school closures, inviting students to return amid a worsening coronavirus pandemic. Falwell is a major and vocal backer of Donald Trump and evangelicals are a core part of the president’s support base.

 

it's going to be so bad in the US when all's said & done.

Mrs Tokyo Sexwale is on the phone to a friend who's decamped to her parent's place in FL. She says the people in FL seem to be unaware that this is happening

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7 minutes ago, Sir Tokyo Sexwale said:

it's going to be so bad in the US when all's said & done.

Mrs Tokyo Sexwale is on the phone to a friend who's decamped to her parent's place in FL. She says the people in FL seem to be unaware that this is happening

Has it not occurred to them yet they have absolutely zero foreign tourists?

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33 minutes ago, psl said:

Thanks. I think though that when we have been told a mortality rate of 1% is expected, this is of those infected. I hope it's not 1% of the population!

There are parts of Italy with a greater than 1% mortality rate. ie, more than 1% of the population has died. 

c4 news just did a report from a town near Bergamo like that. 

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3 hours ago, Redray said:

You would have thought the mortality rate on the Diamond Princess would be a more accurate guideline.  712 cases, 587 recovered and 10 deaths.  Also have to factor in the age range of those on board which you would think was at the higher end.

That is an excellent point.

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I'm being thick probably but what about the cases where the people didn't recover or die?

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which if the case means we can't determine a mortality rate before the do one or the other.

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well, we can to a degree...

The Johns Hopkins site says right now - 

Infected - 398,107

Deaths - 17,454

Recovered - 103,334

 

Now maybe of the remaining 277,000 100k will die which will send the % through the roof, but that's unlikely,. And also there are probably - certainly - people who have had it & gone unrecorded as well as people who've died from it & aren't in these stats.

Of the above 4.4% have died. Not long ago it was 3.4%, but then regionally there are disparities too - 

China 4%

Italy 10.7% (!!)
USA 1.3% - that's going to skyrocket in the coming weeks

Spain 7% and

Germany 0.5%

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1 minute ago, Sir Tokyo Sexwale said:

well, we can to a degree...

The Johns Hopkins site says right now - 

Infected - 398,107

Deaths - 17,454

Recovered - 103,334

 

Now maybe of the remaining 277,000 100k will die which will send the % through the roof, but that's unlikely,. And also there are probably - certainly - people who have had it & gone unrecorded as well as people who've died from it & aren't in these stats.

Of the above 4.4% have died. Not long ago it was 3.4%, but then regionally there are disparities too - 

China 4%

Italy 10.7% (!!)
USA 1.3% - that's going to skyrocket in the coming weeks

Spain 7% and

Germany 0.5%

The %ages aren't worth s***, given the variable amounts of testing.

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well - what they are showing is a high mortality rate, much higher than was being talked of before.

But as you say - the US & UK are leading basket-cases in their approaches. I fully expect the US to have overtaken China by this time next week in terms of published numbers. So much for Trump's "we've got it under control, there are only 15 deaths soon it'll be none"

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18 minutes ago, Sir Tokyo Sexwale said:

well - what they are showing is a high mortality rate, much higher than was being talked of before.

But as you say - the US & UK are leading basket-cases in their approaches. I fully expect the US to have overtaken China by this time next week in terms of published numbers. So much for Trump's "we've got it under control, there are only 15 deaths soon it'll be none"

The quality of data isn't there to support any of the conclusions you're drawing. My gut feeling says you're broadly right but none of us really have any idea

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29 minutes ago, Sir Tokyo Sexwale said:

Now maybe of the remaining 277,000 100k will die which will send the % through the roof, but that's unlikely,. And also there are probably - certainly - people who have had it & gone unrecorded as well as people who've died from it & aren't in these stats.

Which also means we can't, I'd also wonder why the length of time it is taking for people diagnosed weeks ago, I would expect the late recovery % to be less than the early recovery % because obviously.

Edited by Swan Red

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I've lived within audible distance of a military firing range most of my life (Castlemartin), very familiar with the noise of heavy artillery being fired.

I'm currently trying to reassure myself that the reason I've heard machine gun fire for the first time ever tonight is because there's less ambient traffic noise.

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Article in the FT about an epidemiological study from Oxford suggesting that the first infections here were early January and that half of us may already have been infected. Still says lockdown etc but that the peak is nearer than the Imperial guys suggest

It’s paywalled but sort of fits in with some of you saying that you’ve had or know those who had all the symptoms weeks ago

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3 hours ago, jimbolala said:

A big company I'm aware of,  ahem ahem, is taking some annual leave from next year's allocation to cover those self isolating. 

Battle lines have been drawn...

Is it a big telecoms company once run by the state?

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well getting laid off from Friday, funny spent a day putting in a new telephone and wi-fi system in one of our garden centres, easy to do with no customers in.......hopefully I will be back to train the staff in a few weeks...........at least I have my health and 3 grown up step kids all working from home............I wonder which of them I will kill first :) 

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2 minutes ago, oakie bob said:

well getting laid off from Friday, funny spent a day putting in a new telephone and wi-fi system in one of our garden centres, easy to do with no customers in.......hopefully I will be back to train the staff in a few weeks...........at least I have my health and 3 grown up step kids all working from home............I wonder which of them I will kill first :) 

When you say laid off, hope you mean on the 80% thing? Pretty indefensible if not

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