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DazzlaJ

EU Referendum

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Think they send far too many generative and fund raising emails from central office. Think Jarg Armani was talking more locally than that. It’s always going to be a mixed bag as it’s dependent on the people running things in CLPs and branches and the time and interest those individuals will have will vary wildly from place to place. In general, I reckon all local parties can and should do more to engage members though.

Doesn't help that CLP meetings are the actual worst and often hijacked by people who should talk less and listen more.

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Amber Rudd and Sir Patrick McLoughlin not standing.

 

Sinking ship...?

 

it's also her husband, I was reading, is getting outsted from the "People's Vote" leadership: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/peoples-vote-standoff-escalates-as-staff-confront-chairman

 

I'm not sure which side of this dispute to believe, TBH. Once Alastair Campbell comes down on one side I have a strong tendency to back the other, but it could be that he's right on this occasion, Does anybody know more?

people who should talk less and listen more

 

there's a lot of people in these kind of situations who basically talk as a way of preventing other people from talking.

 

You're a teacher, right? Member of N.U.T. or another union? I've heard very similar things from there.

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Doesn't help that CLP meetings are the actual worst and often hijacked by people who should talk less and listen more.

I would like to preemptively apologise

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there's a lot of people in these kind of situations who basically talk as a way of preventing other people from talking.

 

You're a teacher, right? Member of N.U.T. or another union? I've heard very similar things from there.

Yes, NEU and it's why I stopped going to rep meetings (have since stood down as rep). We had people who only cover taught 30 years ago going on long rants about education and I just couldn't be arsed anymore.

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It’s nigh on impossible for Labour to win a majority in this election isn’t it, with apologies and all due respect to all those who campaign and strive for votes.

Just trying to make sense of the numbers. With no seats in Scotland, Labour would need to both hold all current seats, and gain a large number, including some with fairly large Tory majorities.

I’m not trying to be negative because there’s still a lot to hope for, being the largest party and able to form a coalition for example.

Actually I’m hoping someone will disagree with my assessment and say they reckon it’s entirely possible that Labour can get a majority.

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Think they send far too many generative and fund raising emails from central office. Think Jarg Armani was talking more locally than that. It’s always going to be a mixed bag as it’s dependent on the people running things in CLPs and branches and the time and interest those individuals will have will vary wildly from place to place. In general, I reckon all local parties can and should do more to engage members though.

Exactly right. I get all sorts of begging emails and bumf through the post, not to mention joe frickin anderson emailing me every Friday about whatever is on his fat mind.

 

Not much asking me to help win local marginals or things that seem targeted at how I can make myself useful for the greater cause.

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It’s nigh on impossible for Labour to win a majority in this election isn’t it, with apologies and all due respect to all those who campaign and strive for votes.

Just trying to make sense of the numbers. With no seats in Scotland, Labour would need to both hold all current seats, and gain a large number, including some with fairly large Tory majorities.

I’m not trying to be negative because there’s still a lot to hope for, being the largest party and able to form a coalition for example.

Actually I’m hoping someone will disagree with my assessment and say they reckon it’s entirely possible that Labour can get a majority.

 

I'd rather they didn't get a majority, but were the largest party in a hung parliament. How probable is that?

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It’s nigh on impossible for Labour to win a majority in this election isn’t it, with apologies and all due respect to all those who campaign and strive for votes.

Just trying to make sense of the numbers. With no seats in Scotland, Labour would need to both hold all current seats, and gain a large number, including some with fairly large Tory majorities.

I’m not trying to be negative because there’s still a lot to hope for, being the largest party and able to form a coalition for example.

Actually I’m hoping someone will disagree with my assessment and say they reckon it’s entirely possible that Labour can get a majority.

 

A Labour coalition with the SNP is very possible.

 

Also, where are you getting the idea that they have to gain seats with large Tory majorities?

I'd rather they didn't get a majority, but were the largest party in a hung parliament. How probable is that?

 

You've given up on socialism then?

Edited by Des

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Doesn't help that CLP meetings are the actual worst and often hijacked by people who should talk less and listen more.

 

My local Green Party have just set up a googlegroup and I joined that - lasted about 48 hours and I've taken myself off it. It's just the same dominant (white, male) voices bickering and sniping at each other over and over again ***. It makes me realise just how much I hate the mechanisms of politics - the way we do politics is absolutely awful and it is no wonder we are in such a mess.

 

 

*** I prefer etc, etc

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My local Green Party have just set up a googlegroup and I joined that - lasted about 48 hours and I've taken myself off it. It's just the same dominant (white, male) voices bickering and sniping at each other over and over again ***. It makes me realise just how much I hate the mechanisms of politics - the way we do politics is absolutely awful and it is no wonder we are in such a mess.

 

 

*** I prefer etc, etc

 

The Greens do nothing but go on about bloody Brexit now way more than they do about climate change or the environment. Labour's Green New Deal is way better than anything they've come up with. Please vote Labour this time, lad.

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My local Green Party have just set up a googlegroup and I joined that - lasted about 48 hours and I've taken myself off it. It's just the same dominant (white, male) voices bickering and sniping at each other over and over again ***. It makes me realise just how much I hate the mechanisms of politics - the way we do politics is absolutely awful and it is no wonder we are in such a mess.

 

 

*** I prefer etc, etc

It is absolutely abominable isn’t it

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A Labour coalition with the SNP is very possible.

 

Also, where are you getting the idea that they have to gain seats with large Tory majorities?

 

My thinking there was just that the number of marginals on offer might not be enough.

The idea of a SNP coalition is reassuring.

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The Greens do nothing but go on about bloody Brexit now way more than they do about climate change or the environment. Labour's Green New Deal is way better than anything they've come up with. Please vote Labour this time, lad.

 

I voted Labour last time - the issue is whether we stand down again or not. We've got a fantastic Labour MP and it would be a tragedy if she lost. We weren't even seen as a marginal seat last time but the Tories lost the seat to Labour mainly due to the Greens standing down. This time we are one of the key marginals - the Tories have been pumping a s*** load of resources into the area. 

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Labour are likely to lose all but one or two of their Scottish seats. Meaning they'd need a net gain of around 25 seats based on 2017 in England and Wales for a labour SNP coalition to work out mathematically. Labour 280ish and SNP and 50ish.

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Labour are likely to lose all but one or two of their Scottish seats. Meaning they'd need a net gain of around 25 seats based on 2017 in England and Wales for a labour SNP coalition to work out mathematically. Labour 280ish and SNP and 50ish.

 

How well do you think the Tories are going to do in Scotland? The only reason they were able to form a govt last time was because of those seats.

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How well do you think the Tories are going to do in Scotland? The only reason they were able to form a govt last time was because of those seats.

Its going to be a repeat of 2015 I suspect. So SNP completely dominating. I don't think the Tories will get a majority at this stage, but they will still probably be the largest party. My money is on the lib dems unofficially propping them up.

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It is absolutely abominable isn’t it

 

We are discussing the merits of voting on a motion that would allow the local party to talk to the Labour Party about the potential of standing down, seeing what the LP had to offer us etc - no decisions made, nothing really controversial and already people have been banned from the discussion and two blokes are in the process of arranging a fist fight. It's absolutely pathetic. 

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It’s nigh on impossible for Labour to win a majority in this election isn’t it, with apologies and all due respect to all those who campaign and strive for votes.

Just trying to make sense of the numbers. With no seats in Scotland, Labour would need to both hold all current seats, and gain a large number, including some with fairly large Tory majorities.

I’m not trying to be negative because there’s still a lot to hope for, being the largest party and able to form a coalition for example.

Actually I’m hoping someone will disagree with my assessment and say they reckon it’s entirely possible that Labour can get a majority.

 

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

 

Would need some serious swings for a majority. Honestly wouldn't surprise me if no one got more than 280 seats we had another election in the Spring. But then a majority of either form wouldn't either; there'll be some really odd results in some seats that have no historical basis for happening you'd guess.

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Its going to be a repeat of 2015 I suspect. So SNP completely dominating. I don't think the Tories will get a majority at this stage, but they will still probably be the largest party. My money is on the lib dems unofficially propping them up.

 

I think it is absolutely nailed on that the Lib Dems will want to form a coalition with the Tories. Swindon has had her eyes on this all along.

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Its going to be a repeat of 2015 I suspect. So SNP completely dominating. I don't think the Tories will get a majority at this stage, but they will still probably be the largest party. My money is on the lib dems unofficially propping them up.

 

That's how it looks right now. You're not factoring in how support for Labour will grow throughout the campaign just as it did in 2017, and I think will again. In fact, the strong possibility that the LDs will go in with the Tories is a great thing to tell Remainers who are thinking of voting for them.

 

And besides, what are the Tories actually offering people apart from Get Brexit Done?

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My thinking there was just that the number of marginals on offer might not be enough.

The idea of a SNP coalition is reassuring.

 

How are you defining marginals?

 

Labour needs 64 gains for an overall majority, substantially fewer to be largest party. Of Labour's top 60 targets, only 1 has a majority of over 3000

 

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

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Reckon we should move the chat to the election thread as I don't want to be complicit in making this election all about f***ing brexit?

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