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The US President


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I don't think that type of detail is available, if it is I haven't seen anything but he's referred to it a couple of times. He's also allowing a much higher degree of uncertainty because of the number of undecideds. His point, that seems intuitively correct is that a 2 point lead with 5% undecided's is a stronger position than a 3 point lead with 10% undecided*. There is a problem with polling Latin American voters, partly because some of the polls only run in English, which seems bonkers tbf and a large number of Latinos working unsociable hours.

 

Florida is very much in play, African American turnout has improved to within 1% of 2012 and Latin American is up. He probably needs 70% of the electorate to be white and it's currently around 67%. Also Obama is still to visit and the Clinton camp wouldn't waste such an important surrogate on a state that's lost. Trump does have a path to the whitehouse still but seems to be very narrow. Think 90%+ is overstating the probability of Clinton but wtf do I know.

 

*Numbers just pulled from the air but you get the point. 

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This is my map from 270toWin.com, you can go and plug your expected winner in the various states.

 

nyrJv.png

 

This is somewhat optimistic but not unrealistic though I'm kinda relying on some dubious assumptions regarding the inadequacy of polling. I think that Clinton has a much better ground game, Trump has done with internal polling after refused to pay his own pollsters and his entire campaign including where he's appearing. African American early voting is improving and Latin American up in % terms which means a massive increase in numbers given that the Latin American electorate has grown since 2012. Oh and women constitute and even larger portion of early voters than they did at the same time in 2012.

 

Some of the early voting may be cannibailistic, and Trump is kind of relying on a lot of registered Dems voting for him which seems unlikely given polls in the key states or undecided's breaking for him in a big way in a lot of places. I don't think these are very likely at all. There are clear problems with polling and lots of pollsters have recent elections wrong, but given problems with polling Latin Americans in particular assuming that the polls are equally likely to be wrong in both directions is a mistake.

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Once again confirming that there is an undercurrent of SA-like thuggery among the Trump supporters. I don't think they'll go away easily.

 

What I do think is the development after this election of these alternative candidates who are going to come into the fray for 2020. Bloomberg would have been an excellent candidate but he's going to be a bit too old. There could be someone who is middle ground and moral with a populist message with a bit of luck.

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Once again confirming that there is an undercurrent of SA-like thuggery among the Trump supporters. I don't think they'll go away easily.

 

What I do think is the development after this election of these alternative candidates who are going to come into the fray for 2020. Bloomberg would have been an excellent candidate but he's going to be a bit too old. There could be someone who is middle ground and moral with a populist message with a bit of luck.

Just amend the constitution and let Obama stay on for another two terms.

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This is my map from 270toWin.com, you can go and plug your expected winner in the various states.

 

nyrJv.png

 

This is somewhat optimistic but not unrealistic though I'm kinda relying on some dubious assumptions regarding the inadequacy of polling. I think that Clinton has a much better ground game, Trump has done with internal polling after refused to pay his own pollsters and his entire campaign including where he's appearing. African American early voting is improving and Latin American up in % terms which means a massive increase in numbers given that the Latin American electorate has grown since 2012. Oh and women constitute and even larger portion of early voters than they did at the same time in 2012.

 

Some of the early voting may be cannibailistic, and Trump is kind of relying on a lot of registered Dems voting for him which seems unlikely given polls in the key states or undecided's breaking for him in a big way in a lot of places. I don't think these are very likely at all. There are clear problems with polling and lots of pollsters have recent elections wrong, but given problems with polling Latin Americans in particular assuming that the polls are equally likely to be wrong in both directions is a mistake.

 

That would be a nice outcome :)

 

As you say, this might be a bit optimistic. My map was overly pessimistic, and the reality will likely be somewhere in between. Doubt either candidate will win all of Florida, Ohio, N Carolina and Nevada 

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I wish there were a number of amendments to the constitution just like Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson favored. These originalists are historically wrong.

Yep. The world has also changed beyond what they must have perceived and changes need to be made accordingly.

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Yep. The world has also changed beyond what they must have perceived and changes need to be made accordingly.

 

 

Revising the constitution was a part of the whole game plan. A huge overhaul of it (which was supposed to have happened organically), is an absolute necessity for the future.

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been confirmed the man was holding a 'republicans against trump' sign. but their first instinct and reaction is to throw a lie out there.

He had a sign but someone yelled 'gun'

 

So basically a bunch of gun nuts s*** themselves when someone thought they saw a gun.

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That would be a nice outcome :)

 

As you say, this might be a bit optimistic. My map was overly pessimistic, and the reality will likely be somewhere in between. Doubt either candidate will win all of Florida, Ohio, N Carolina and Nevada 

 

Ohio is the least likely of the 4 but I think she's going to win Florida NC and NV

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I don't think that type of detail is available, if it is I haven't seen anything but he's referred to it a couple of times. He's also allowing a much higher degree of uncertainty because of the number of undecideds. His point, that seems intuitively correct is that a 2 point lead with 5% undecided's is a stronger position than a 3 point lead with 10% undecided*. There is a problem with polling Latin American voters, partly because some of the polls only run in English, which seems bonkers tbf and a large number of Latinos working unsociable hours.

 

Florida is very much in play, African American turnout has improved to within 1% of 2012 and Latin American is up. He probably needs 70% of the electorate to be white and it's currently around 67%. Also Obama is still to visit and the Clinton camp wouldn't waste such an important surrogate on a state that's lost. Trump does have a path to the whitehouse still but seems to be very narrow. Think 90%+ is overstating the probability of Clinton but wtf do I know.

 

*Numbers just pulled from the air but you get the point.

Thanks Swan. Makes sense the way he factors undecideds.

 

It is strange that in this day and age they can't get polling stats for a demographic.

 

So Clinton won't visit Florida where but Obama will. Still reckon Trump could lose Florida. Ohio maybe neck and neck as well.

 

Fingers very crossed at the moment for Clinton to win.

Edited by baja the hut
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Thanks Swan. Makes sense the way he factors undecideds.

 

It is strange that in this day and age they can't get polling stats for a demographic.

 

So Clinton won't visit Florida where but Obama will. Still reckon Trump could lose Florida. Ohio maybe neck and neck as well.

 

Fingers very crossed at the moment for Clinton to win.

 

Clinton had just appeared in Florida but rain caused her to cut it short. Ohio I think the most unlikely of the states I've given Clinton but dems are doing work there which may suggest their internal polling still has it competitive. If I was betting a line I'd snap take > 300 Electoral Votes at evens.

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If she does win, and it's swung by women, african-americans and latinos, the angry white men (with guns) are really not going to shut up about their country being stolen.

Maybe the government should gift them white man reservations where they can shoot guns, drill for oil and have questionable relationships with their cousins

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Both sides more than capable of dirty tricks, especially Clinton.  She was more than happy to dig up dirt when running against Sanders and Obama also.  That's not to say the guy may not be who he says he is.  The following short clip is a real eye opener showing the lengths they have gone to recently. 

 

 

I see the leader of the Green party in America recently said she is supporting Trump because she's afraid of Clinton kicking off WW3.  One of the US top generals has said the no fly zone that Hillary keeps proposing in Syria would not save many lives but would require the US to come into direct conflict with Russia and Syria.  Assange had an interview with John Pilger where he pointed out that the emails show that the US is aware that the Saudis have sold weapons to IS.  Also US exports of weapons to Saudi Arabia have increased to $118 billion in the last eight years, a massive increase.  Finally Assange pointed out that the Saudis were also one of the main backers of Clinton's campaign which Pilger said was amazing given their support for IS.   It certainly gives some credence to the view that the US is not really fighting IS at all and the recent "accidental" strike where they bombed the syrian army may not have been accidental at all.

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