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I was watching us get snotted in the cricket yetserday and watched a bit of the Premiership years. It was halfway through and Utd were walking it and they showed the table and I couldn't for the life of me remember which one it was, we were too far away to make a serious challenge, Arsenal were further away than us and Blackburn were on Utd's coat tails. Then they showed the clip of Overmars leaving Neville for dead and I realised that it was the year Arsenal came from the dead. The next hour I got to watch the blood drain from Slur's face as he got less and less sure of his sides chances. Even after Arsenal beat them he was giving it the 'They've got it all to do' but after we drew with them at OT and Arsenal were 7pts behind with 4 games in hand he conceded they were favourites. f***ing cracking TV :lol:

 

Anyway, I digress, Utd slipped up Chelsea didn't and it's game on, Chelsea need to win at the Bridge and hope that Utd draw ONE game whilst they win the remainder of theirs. I didn't think they'd do it but Arsenal away doesn't look as tricky as it did 2 months ago and Utd are running out of fit players.

 

This one is going to the wire and it's 10 years since we had a decent title race so it's long overdue.

 

Man Utd's remaining Premiership fixtures:

 

Tuesday, 17 April

(H) Sheff Utd

Saturday, 21 April

(H) Middlesbrough

Saturday, 28 April

(A) Everton

Saturday, 5 May

(A) Man City

Wednesday, 9 May

(A) Chelsea

Sunday, 13 May

(H) West Ham

 

Chelsea's remaining Premiership fixtures:

 

Wednesday, 18 April

(A) West Ham

Sunday, 22 April

(A) Newcastle

Saturday, 28 April

(H) Bolton

Sunday, 6 May

(A) Arsenal

Wednesday, 9 May

(H) Man Utd

Sunday, 13 May

(H) Everton

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Using the football predictor available here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/fink_tank/

 

I calculated that the expectation of points for Man U and Chelse for the remainder of the season is:

 

Man U 12.45

Chelsea 12.01

 

adding this to the points already notched up:

 

Manu 90.45

Chelsea 87.01

 

which means, of course that Man U would win the League by 3 or 4 points.

 

If, however, Chelsea can win their up coming 3 away games (very BIG if) then their expectation changes to 14.91 so they'd win it by 1 point.

 

The 'spreads' at http://www.sportingindex.com/ also reflect the above:

 

Man U 89.5 - 90.5

Chelsea 87.0 - 88.0

 

I reckon it needs either phenomenal performance by Chelsea or further f*ck ups by Man U for the neutrals favourites to overhaul them.

 

 

Belay that!

 

I made an error in my calculations - had the Chelsea-Bolton and Arsenal-Chelsea games the wrong way round.

 

CHelsea's expected points should actually be 11.92 (86.92 in total) so it's slightly more in Man U's favour than I said.

Edited by John am Rhein
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Using the football predictor available here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/fink_tank/

 

I calculated that the expectation of points for Man U and Chelse for the remainder of the season is:

 

Man U 12.45

Chelsea 12.01

 

adding this to the points already notched up:

 

Manu 90.45

Chelsea 87.01

 

which means, of course that Man U would win the League by 3 or 4 points.

 

If, however, Chelsea can win their up coming 3 away games (very BIG if) then their expectation changes to 14.91 so they'd win it by 1 point.

 

The 'spreads' at http://www.sportingindex.com/ also reflect the above:

 

Man U 89.5 - 90.5

Chelsea 87.0 - 88.0

 

I reckon it needs either phenomenal performance by Chelsea or further f*ck ups by Man U for the neutrals favourites to overhaul them.

Belay that!

 

I made an error in my calculations - had the Chelsea-Bolton and Arsenal-Chelsea games the wrong way round.

 

CHelsea's expected points should actually be 11.92 (86.92 in total) so it's slightly more in Man U's favour than I said.

 

It's interesting but it makes Arsenal a favourite over Chelsea which, given current form is rubbish, Chelsea have remembered how to defend and are grinding out 1-0 wins again, in particular, away from home. Utd are beset with injuries and conceding soft goals.

 

I think Chelsea will sneak it by winning all their remaining games, like Arsenal did in 97/98 but it is wishful thinking to some degree :D

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That's thinking I'm also wishing! :)

 

It has Arsenal-Chelsea as Arsenal 37%, Chelsea 33%, draw 30% (home advantage being accounted for here), which makes Chelsea's points expectation 1.29. You could slant it a bit more in Chelsea's favour (say, for example 32-30-38 (1.44) without making much difference to that expectation).

 

I think the key things are:

 

Chelsea have two 'tough' games whereas Man U only have one.

Man U's home games can easily be ranked as near-certain wins (although I wouldn't be surprised if they got, say, 7 points out of 9) whereas Chelsea's are all slghtly or even very dodgy.

 

and, of course, above all, Man U are already 3 points ahead and have a better goal difference

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and, of course, above all, Man U are already 3 points ahead and have a better goal difference

 

I fully expect Chelsea to do them at the Bridge and that is factored into my analysis. So, as I see it, Man U have the goal difference which is worth 1pt and it's about where you see either side dropping points. Goodison is where I see Utd dropping 2 pts and I don't see a fixture that Chelsea wont win. But it is wishful thinking granted.

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Chelsea don't look like losing at the moment.

 

Salford looked very dodgy at the weekend - even Ronaldo's cheating wasn't paying off.

 

I'd still say the Mancs are favourites as their run-in looks a lot more favourable.

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I'd still say the Mancs are favourites as their run-in looks a lot more favourable.

 

 

Woooo, I don't know about that! I'd say the momentum is now with Chelsea. I wrote off any other scenario than a Utd win in January but it's looking ominous for them now.

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Woooo, I don't know about that! I'd say the momentum is now with Chelsea. I wrote off any other scenario than a Utd win in January but it's looking ominous for them now.

 

I think for once Mourinho maybe right. The Munsters play Sheffield Utd. in their next game, and can build again from that - even if they draw 0-0 with Roma and qualify for the semi's.

Edited by Lee W
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I think for once Mourinho maybe right. The Munsters play Sheffield Utd. in their next game, and can build again from that - even if they draw 0-0 with Roma and qualify for the semi's.

 

 

Aye. TBH I want both of them to lose but as I don't actually know anyone who really supports Chelsea, for me personally, a win for them deprives Utd of being that one title closer to us so....Come on Chelsea!

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WHU are the title makers in that - if they take more points from one team than the other that will descide it

 

they play MOO on the last game of the season and if there is still hope of escaping relegation ... its gonna be a doozy

especially if Chelsea beat MOO

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  • 2 weeks later...
According to the above analysis Chelsea now stand at 87.57 with Man U at 89.28.

 

Starting to look like Chelsea might well win the League by one point IF they win the game vs Man U.

 

I do believe in the above I said I'd assumed Chelsea would beat the Mancs to give themselves a chance. The draw came sooner than I thought but did you see how edgy Utd looked ? Even Giggs looked shaky at times. It's up to Chelsea to turn the screw today, beat Newcastle and I think the pressure will really start to build on Utd and with City and Everton away to come they don't look like 6pts anymore. Chelsea HAVE to win today though, a slip up would take all the pressure off. I now think that Chelsea can afford to draw with Arsenal and they will still be Champions because without Rio and with two huge games against Milan Utd are definitely going to drop pts.

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Who have the Mancs got next?

 

Just seen its at the top of the thread... Everton away could be difficult for them between two legs of a European semi final and with neither of their central defenders fit.

Edited by psl
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Guest Anders Honoré

would be fantastic to see ManU do a leverkusen and lose all three competitions in the last game.

 

It would detract a bit if it were chelsea picking up all three trophies though.

 

And I am still hoping Milan knock them out. Don't want them in the final.

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everton always roll over for the mancs, so thats an easy 3 points for the mancs.

 

chelsea have it a bit rough though. They has newcy, then us, then bolton then us then arsenal.

 

Just makes it all the more important that we beat chelsea so they can focus on beating the mancs in the league. I don't trust anyone but us to beat Man U if they get to the final. Chelsea will have to take the FA cup at least too I guess.

 

As for tight titles, the dutch and spanish titles are great chases, as is the first division (or championship or whatever).

 

I just wish there were 3 teams in the race and we were one of them.

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Just makes it all the more important that we beat chelsea so they can focus on beating the mancs in the league. I don't trust anyone but us to beat Man U if they get to the final. Chelsea will have to take the FA cup at least too I guess.

 

Aye, so it's a double bubble if we beat Chelsea. They'll go even harder after the in-breds!

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